Raish: Thunder Wave gets you the full para chance and lets you win the speed tie if you haven't been paralyzed too
Jul 20, 2014 13:46:20 GMT -8
Raish: But Ice Beam lets you 2HKO so you'll only fall behind if they get a crit and you don't or if you get para+fp slammed
Jul 20, 2014 13:49:05 GMT -8
Raish: Plus can't forget the 1/10 freeze chance on Ice Beam if they don't already have someone frozen
Jul 20, 2014 13:49:29 GMT -8
Isa: If it is literally Chansey at 80% or so versus Tauros at full I'd instinctively go for Thunder Wave, but it should be quite easy to math this out...
Jul 20, 2014 13:50:59 GMT -8
Raish: Let's say paralyzed Chansey but yeah, about there
Jul 20, 2014 15:52:22 GMT -8
CrapAtRBY: My guess would be T-wave unless you're putting Tauros in H-beam KO range and your Tauros is full health
Jul 20, 2014 16:15:14 GMT -8
magic9mushroom: Well, Thunder Wave typically makes the game *not* come down to a Tauros ditto since their paralysed Tauros can't sweep. But if it's literally Chansey + full health Tauros vs. full health Tauros I'd Ice Beam.
Jul 20, 2014 18:48:53 GMT -8
marcoasd: Maybe Ice Beam if Chansey is para'd, TWave if it's not. Health is more important than paralysis in a Tauros ditto; if Chansey is not para'd, it can use TWave and hope for that 70%: at that point, Body Slam+HB will kill, forcing the opponent to CH HB.
Jul 21, 2014 2:43:44 GMT -8
magic9mushroom: And CH HB is a 50/50 to OHKO anyway.
Jul 21, 2014 16:34:07 GMT -8
marcoasd: Yeah, that's where Thunder Wave works: the chance to attack again (70%) means almost game over. Btw, are you willing to calc more matchups? (Zapdos or Exeggutor vs incoming Chansey etc etc...)
Jul 22, 2014 0:11:39 GMT -8
Isa: Paralysis has a 25% of kicking in, not 30% :p
Jul 22, 2014 0:25:30 GMT -8
magic9mushroom: Isa that's true but the fullpara chance isn't what marcoasd is talking about. He's talking about the chance an unparalysed Chansey has to para Tauros with Thunder Wave and then (due to outspeeding it) attack it again with Ice Beam before fainting.
Jul 22, 2014 2:10:34 GMT -8
magic9mushroom: Though technically it's 70% that Tauros will NOT para Chansey and thus Chansey will outspeed Tauros plus 30% * 20% = 6% that Tauros WILL para Chansey but Chansey will get to attack first thanks to fullpara = 76%. So you're right for the wrong reason .
Jul 22, 2014 2:16:55 GMT -8
magic9mushroom: (that's 20% for the same reason Gengar's success rate vs. Jynx lead is 2/3 and not 60%; it takes into account the possibility of long chains of both being full-paraed, as what matters is who gets an attack first)
Jul 22, 2014 2:18:49 GMT -8
Isa: I assumed that Chansey was paralyzed to begin with since Raish added that when I asked about the scenario
Jul 22, 2014 2:24:03 GMT -8
marcoasd: Isa: I was talking about attacking twice if Body Slam doesn't para.I don't consider the paraslam+FP scenario, cause it nullifies your choice between Ice Beam and TWave (and Chansey goes down for nothing, lol). m9m got it right and even better as usual,lol
Jul 22, 2014 9:29:55 GMT -8
Raish: Ok, taking a break while I prep to move and acclimate to med school! Not sure how long I'll be gone or if I'll stop by to chat, but I'll be back once things are settled down!
Jul 22, 2014 23:32:32 GMT -8
magic9mushroom: marcoasd: As I said, Recover and Softboiled users tend to be really hard unless you cheat like I did with Chansey/Lapras (assuming 2 Body Slams = 1 Softboiled). I don't think such a cheat works for Egg (using Egg Bomb/DE I presume?) or Zapdos.
Jul 22, 2014 23:43:27 GMT -8
Isa: Best of luck to you, Raish!
Jul 23, 2014 0:00:33 GMT -8
marcoasd: I meant para'd Chansey (or Starmie/Zam) switching into Egg's Psychic. Or other difficult scenarios. I always try to figure out the chances at a glance (that I'm good at), but knowing chances for sure would be cool. I see it's difficult.
Jul 23, 2014 7:55:10 GMT -8