Alakazam vs. Tauros - Attacking

[t3h Icy]

** Note: no conclusion is reached as these statistics remain incomplete ** -WW

WaterWizard believes you should use Psychic first and I suggest Thunder Wave first. And he's stubborn.

So let's do the math:

0.3 Special Fall first turn
0.7 no Special Fall first turn
0.412 chance of a CH across two turns
0.587 chance of no CH across two turns

Special Fall * CH = 0.1236
Special Fall * no CH = 0.1761
No Special Fall * CH = 0.2884
No Special Fall * no CH = 0.4109

58.91% chance of 2HKO (not factoring in Tauros stuff)
41.09% chance of 3HKO (not factoring in Tauros stuff)

So if you use Psychic first, following after, you have a 58.91% chance to 2HKO and a 41.09% chance to 3HKO. But let's factor in Tauros's CH rate and Paralysis.

Since Tauros won't be Paralyzed, a Paralyzing Body Slam means you can't do the 2HKO. I'm also assuming Tauros finishes Alakazam off with Hyper Beam.

Body Slam Paralysis: 0.3
Body Slam no Paralysis: 0.7

Hyper Beam hits 0.9
Hyper Beam misses 0.1

FP = 0.25
No FP = 0.75

2HKO chance * No Paralysis= 0.41237
2HKO chance * Paralysis * Hyper Beam miss * No FP = 0.013

So the total at this point is about 42% (0.4256)

Tauros Body Slam CH = 0.215
Tauros Body Slam no CH = 0.785

(To KO with a CH, you need 231 or higher with the random number)

Tauros CH enough to OHKO = 0.64
Tauros CH doesn't OHKO = 0.35

0.4256 (Chance thus far) * 0.785 (no CH) = 0.334
0.4256 (Chance thus far) * 0.215 (CH) * 0.35 (low damage) = 0.032

So the grand total to 2HKO using Psychic with Alakazam against a Tauros that uses Body Slam followed by Hyper Beam is 36.6%.

Now what I suggest: use Thunder Wave first.

With Thunder Wave, Alakazam is much safer in the event of a Paralyzing Body Slam, you get the benefit of Full Paralysis chances and if Tauros OHKOs, you leave the opponent with a Paralyzed Tauros as opposed to a damaged one. In the case that Tauros 2HKOs and you get to attack twice before dying, you either have a critically damage Tauros (~1-5% HP) by using two Psychics or a Paralyzed Tauros with ~50%ish HP left), by using Thunder Wave first.

FP = 0.25
No FP = 0.75

Tauros Body Slam CH = 0.215
Tauros Body Slam no CH = 0.785

(To KO with a CH, you need 231 or higher with the random number)

Tauros CH enough to OHKO = 0.64
Tauros CH doesn't OHKO = 0.35

Chance of Tauros OHKOing after you use Thunder Wave:

No FP * Body Slam CH * enough damage = 0.1032

So if you use Thunder Wave, you survive 89.68% of the time. Following this, you can Psychic, so long as you weren't hit by Body Slam, Paralyzed, you FP next turn AND Tauros doesn't FP.

Body Slam CH * low damage = 0.075
Body Slam no CH = 0.785

So without applying FPs, Alakazam survives exactly 86% of the time.

Body Slam Paralysis: 0.3
Body Slam no Paralysis: 0.7

No FP * 0.86 (Alakazam Survives) * Paralysis * FP (Alakazam) * No FP (Tauros) * Hyper Beam hit = 0.0327

Tauros has a 3.27% chance to Paralyze Alakazam and then KO if you use Thunder Wave first.

Thus, use Thunder Wave first and not Psychic.

[Twig]

Whoa.

[WaterWizard]

No.

you didn't follow through to the conclusion of the T-wave first scenario... add in the 2nd (and 3rd if Tauros doesn't get to HB the 2nd turn) and even the 4th turn (because this is how long it might take Zam to KO tauros).

Also, for the first scenario, you didn't add in the chance for Zam to 1hko.

[t3h Icy]

The goal of Thunder Wave first isn't to KO, but to Paralyze and then (very likely) do damage after. Tauros at 5% can still sweep teams, Tauros at 55% and Paralyzed can't if your team has unparalyzed Pokemon.

Also the chance of a OHKO with Alakazam is low, but yes I didn't consider that.

Chance of Psychic CH: 0.234
Chance of doing enough damage: 0.077

Chance of OHKO: 0.018

That bumps up to 38.4% of a OHKO/2HKO. Again though, Tauros is left unparalyzed.

Don't forget that the chance to OHKO helps Thunder Wave first's scenario as well, but again, you just want to hit him once for the most part following Thunder Wave.

[WaterWizard]

it's misleading to say that you are correct, when your conclusion is to have a dead alakazam and a paralyzed weakened Tauros.

unless you complete the statistics for KO, you're comparing apples and oranges.

our approaches yield different results and are therefore not comparable nor is one inferior/superior.

although, i would say that my approach has a 38% chance to have a dead enemy tauros and an alive personal alakazam, whereas yours yields a dead personal alakazam, and crippled enemy tauros that can switch out and come back later to kill other crippled monsters.

[t3h Icy]

Fine. -_-

Case 1: Thunder Wave->FP

This puts you exactly as if you were to use Psychic first, except each turn, Tauros has to avoid FPing, and you're still faster if Tauros paralyzes you.

0.3 Special Fall first turn
0.7 no Special Fall first turn
0.412 chance of a CH across two turns
0.587 chance of no CH across two turnsSpecial Fall * CH = 0.1236
Special Fall * no CH = 0.1761
No Special Fall * CH = 0.2884
No Special Fall * no CH = 0.4109

58.91% chance of 2HKO (not factoring in Tauros stuff)
41.09% chance of 3HKO (not factoring in Tauros stuff)

Case 1a) OHKO:

Chance of OHKO: 0.018

FP * OHKO = 0.0045

So about 0.45% chance to Paralyze Tauros and then OHKO.

Case 1b) 2HKO:

0.5891 chance to 2HKO based just on using Psychic twice.

No FP * Body Slam CH * enough damage = 0.1032
Not the above: 0.8968

Tauros FP 1st turn * 2HKO chance * not dying 2nd turn: 0.132
Tauros FP 1st turn * 2HKO chance * not dying 2nd turn * Paraslam * No FP (Alakazam): 0.03

So there's a 13.2% chance of Tauros FPing, you 2HKOing and not dying. This also excludes both Pokemon continuing in double FP loops.

Case 1c) 3HKO:

41.09% chance of 3HKO (not factoring in Tauros stuff)

Tauros FP 1st turn * 3HKO chance: 0.103

That's the base for what's to come. To 3HKO, Tauros gets two turns to attack.

0.075 BS CH not enough
Tauros Body Slam CH = 0.215
Tauros Body Slam no CH = 0.785

FP * FP: 0.0625
No FP * Body Slam CH * not enough * FP: 0.014
FP * Body Slam CH * not enough * No FP: 0.014
No FP * Body Slam CH * not enough * No FP * Hyper Beam miss: 0.042
FP * Body Slam no CH * No FP: 0.147
No FP * Body Slam no CH * FP: 0.147
No FP * Body Slam no CH * No FP * CH * Hyper Beam miss: 0.109

Sub-Total: 0.5355
Base * sub-total: 0.055

This is all we care about since everything else kills Alakazam.

And we also multiply this by the chance of not being Paralyzed/Paralyzed no FP.

No Paralysis: 0.7
Paralysis * No FP (Alakazam): 0.225

0.925 * base * sub-total: 0.05 (5.1%)

CASE 1 TOTAL: 18.75% of KOing Tauros after Thunder Wave and a FP the first turn.

Case 2: Thunder Wave->No FP

0.75 for no FP

The Body Slam doesn't OHKO: 0.8968

So this comes to 0.6726 as our base for the following cases.

Base * No Para * OHKO (Alakazam): 0.008
Base * No Para * 2HKO (Alakazam) * FP: 0.069
Base * No Para * 2HKO (Alakazam) * * No FP * Hyper Beam miss: 0.021
Base * No Para * 3HKO (Alakazam) * FP * FP: 0.012
Base * No Para * 3HKO (Alakazam) * FP * No FP * Hyper Beam miss: 0.004
Base * No Para * 3HKO (Alakazam) * No FP * Hyper Beam miss * FP: 0.004
Base * No Para * 3HKO (Alakazam) * No FP * No FP * Hyper Beam miss * Hyper Beam miss: 0.001

This chunk totals to 10.7%. Now if we divide it by 0.7 and multiply it by 0.3 (to undo no paralysis Body Slam and consider paralysis), we get 0.046. At this point, we can end up in endless FP loops, so let's just approximate (lol), by considering avoiding FP once, which drops that to 3.45%.

CASE 2 TOTAL: ~14.15%

GRAND FUCKING TOTAL: 32.9%

So if we use Thunder Wave first, we still have a 32.9% chance of beating Tauros as opposed to 38.4% if we use Psychic first. However, if Tauros runs you down, you either leave Tauros at about half HP and Paralyzed or with a hair left. Or if Tauros OHKOs, you either Paralyze him or do ~50%ish.

SO THERE YOU HAVE IT WATERWIZARD. Use Thunder Wave first.

[posthuman]

WW's kinda right, the chances of the same outcome occurring should be compared to see how they differ.

So maybe WW's strategy is more effective in killing Tauros, but it's risky as Zam can get paralyzed by a Body Slam and killed. Icy's has a more certain outcome because Tauros will always be crippled in the end, even if he isn't dead.

I'd say the choice you make in this situation is... situational. Using Psychic first will give you a greater chance in killing Tauros, so if you really need to keep your Zam alive, use this method. If you'd rather be certain Tauros can't sweep, paralyze him first and do damage after, revenge killing him if Zam doesn't survive.

To add my opinion, I usually paralyze first, but I'll do damage first if a paralyzed Tauros could still sweep me.


Haha I love how nobody else does analyses like these. I'm not sure if anyone else has taken stats, but I have; it's really not that hard. I just wouldn't enjoy doing it. Although, stats is certainly necessary for my area of study.

[t3h Icy]

5.5% extra chance vs Paralysis.

Also like I've said before, consistency is a great thing to have, which my method has.

Also this is why RBY appears simple but can be really deep if you decide to go digging.

[Nerd]

Your actions in this situation really depend on the state of both your teams... if your opponent is on his last pokemon while you still have several slower pokemon, t-wave is the obvious answer. If you're 1-on-1 at the end, it seems psychic would be better. In an early-to-mid game situation, where your opponent is more likely to switch, you have a lot more to consider.

By the way, if you are using a T-wave / psychic / recover / reflect alakazam, would you advise against using reflect in a 1-on-1 scenario?

[t3h Icy]

Don't forget this assumed spamming Psychic. When using Thunder Wave, you also gain the option of using Recover in hopes of FPs, and you could combine Reflect.

Since Body Slam will be killing you only with a CH in most cases (unless you FP a lot), Reflect isn't great, unless you're avoiding ranges from the following Pokemon. Reflect is nice before Hyper Beam if you can survive it.

I recommend Reflect vs Snorlax though since his CH rate is abysmal and you can just spam Recover, so long as Snorlax doesn't Paralyze you. Thunder Wave also doesn't help as much except for FPs since Snorlax is already so slow. It is nice if you want your own Paralyzed Pokemon to attack first later.

[WaterWizard]

Thanks to posthuman for explaining why I find it amusing that you still say "so T-wave is better" after your calculations say the exact opposite!

I agree with you guys; your choice depends on the team conditions.

Also, this whole scenario is of course highly situational (which Icy and I agreed when we started the discussion), as you're very unlikely to have fresh Tauros vs fresh Alakazam and have both pokes stay in, and not use utilize Reflect/Recover.

[garrinred]

At the risk of reviving a dead argument, what about using Reflect first?

[WaterWizard]

yes, Reflect is definitely an option. This thread was just the result of a long debate on the netbattle server one evening.

[garrinred]

I wonder if Icy will run the stats on it. ^_^

[Crystal_]

so can anyone ensure in last poke scenario which of reflect/wave/psychic is better...?

[Isa]

Psychic > TWave in the pure 1v1, at least.

[garrinred]

Reflect > T-wave > Psychic overall.

[posthuman]

this again? definitely not reflect first... tauros's crit rate is kind of high

It really depends on the situation, but usually TWave if you have a backup poke to finish Tauros and Psychic if you don't.

[Crystal_]

Ok, I psychic'd yesterday...

and lost... but ok.

[Isa]

Yeah, I used explosion the other day and got a 255...

and lost...but ok.

Crystal, psychic first still doesn't give Zam even 40% win ratio. You're not supposed to win, the odds are just higher.

[garrinred]

You ARE supposed to win with Reflect.

[Isa]

No, because one CH over the course of two Body Slams means death. You have a 30,1% chance in two Tauros BSlams to avoid a CH and a Paraslam. That means 30,1% of you winning if you go Reflect-->Psychic (assuming that Zam can't OHKO with a Psychic CH), and probably lower if you go Reflect--TWave, and that's assuming Zam 2HKO's with Psychic, which he does only 58,91% of the time. If you get the 3HKO, what are you going to do...? Reflect+Psychic+Psychic+Psychic? That needs Tauros to not get a CH or Paralysis in three hits. 16,5% chance of Zam winning in that case, and that is assuming Tauros only uses Body Slam.

Reflect seems worse than TWave to me because the chance of either a CH or Paraslam combined is higher than the chance of a FP. Both spell the end for Zam - what are you going to do if the first hit is a paraslam? TWave and then Recover? That means that he gets 3 Body Slams in before you've even started to damage him, and you have to hit the TWave while paralyzed.

[garrinred]

First turn, Zam uses Reflect.

From here, Zam has a chance to survive the first turn Body Slam critical. I am not sure exactly what the random numbers say this chance is, but judging by max damage and Zam's HP, it appears to be around 30/51, or 60%.

So more or less the odds for turn 1 are:
54.6% no crit, no para.
6.6% crit + para (Zam = dead whether or not it's a lethal crit).
9.2% no para, nonlethal crit.
6.2% no para, lethal crit (Zam = dead).
23.4% para but no crit.

As you can see, this gets really complicated really fast.

In a no crit, no para scenario, Zam T-waves.
In a no para, nonlethal crit scenario, Zam Recovers.
In a para but no crit scenario, Zam T-waves.

From here on, we need to take FP chances into consideration in addition to everything else. No fun.

I don't have the time or patience to go through with the rest of the probabilities right now. I just wanted to introduce the concept of the non-lethal crit.

[Isa]

Dec 4, 2010 22:48:00 GMT -8 t3h Icy said:

Tauros Body Slam CH = 0.215
Tauros Body Slam no CH = 0.785

(To KO with a CH, you need 231 or higher with the random number)

Tauros CH enough to OHKO = 0.64
Tauros CH doesn't OHKO = 0.35

Wrong math, a CH has a much better chance to KO than not.

[magic9mushroom]

Oct 26, 2011 8:58:43 GMT -8 Isa said:

Dec 4, 2010 22:48:00 GMT -8 t3h Icy said:

Tauros Body Slam CH = 0.215
Tauros Body Slam no CH = 0.785

(To KO with a CH, you need 231 or higher with the random number)

Tauros CH enough to OHKO = 0.64
Tauros CH doesn't OHKO = 0.35

Wrong math, a CH has a much better chance to KO than not.

Really? The calculator I'm using says that a CH Body Slam does 284-334, avg 309. Zam has 313 HP. That looks like it's less likely to KO than to not KO.

[Isa]

I didn't save my calculations that I made yesterday, but if I remember correctly, BSlam has a 21/39 chance to OHKO on a CH.

So I made my calcs again, and I get the max damage to be 342.
((0.84*2*85*298/188)+2)*1.5 = 342.
And from there:
342*(217/255) = 291
342*(234/255) = 313
342*(233/255) = 312

"Much better" is an exaggeration, but the chances of a CH killing is higher than not.

[magic9mushroom]

Aug 7, 2013 1:26:13 GMT -8 Isa said:

I didn't save my calculations that I made yesterday, but if I remember correctly, BSlam has a 21/39 chance to OHKO on a CH.

So I made my calcs again, and I get the max damage to be 342.
((0.84*2*85*298/188)+2)*1.5 = 342.
And from there:
342*(217/255) = 291
342*(234/255) = 313
342*(233/255) = 312

"Much better" is an exaggeration, but the chances of a CH killing is higher than not.

The 0.84 isn't doubled, it's changed to 1.64, because you double the level directly. That gives 334 max damage and 284 min damage, as I quoted earlier. It needs 94% or higher, so it's a 16/39 chance to OHKO (41%).

[Isa]

I'm just gonna retire from math.

[magic9mushroom]

Aug 7, 2013 3:40:30 GMT -8 Isa said:

I'm just gonna retire from math.

Everyone makes arithmetic errors. God knows the formula's complicated enough.

[piexplode]

So really in conclusion in t-wave vs psychic, the major difference is the state you leave tauros in. If it makes no difference to you at that point whether tauros is paralysed or not, psychic is best. If it does t-wave.

Are we getting anywhere with reflect and recover yet?