|
Post by t3h Icy on Mar 8, 2013 22:57:07 GMT -8
Discuss Alakazam!
|
|
|
Post by t3h Icy on Mar 9, 2013 1:43:17 GMT -8
So I think Alakazam lead vs Gengar is an interesting part of the game. What should Alakazam do: Psychic or Thunder Wave?
First let's suppose Alakazam uses Psychic only and Gengar is trying to use Hypnosis. I'll consider Alakazam winning as when he either KOs Gengar, or sets up for a KO (at which point, most players switch out). This gives the following possibilities:
Psychic CHs: 23.4375% (guaranteed OHKO) Psychic non-CH, Hypnosis hits: 45.9375% Psychic non-CH, Hypnosis misses: 30.625% (either Gengar dies or switches out)
Alakazam "wins" 54.0625% of the time. Gengar hits Hypnosis 45.9375% of the time.
Now let's consider Alakazam using Psychic only, and Gengar is using Explosion. Explosion OHKOs 2/3rds of the time, and OHKOs when it CHs:
Psychic CHs: 23.4375% (guaranteed OHKO) Psychic non-CH, Explosion KOs: 56.5247% Psychic non-CH, Explosion doesn't KO: 20.0378%
Alakazam "wins" 43.4753% of the time. Gengar KOs Alakazam 56.5247% of the time.
Now for Alakazam using Thunder Wave, followed by Psychic. First is Gengar using Hypnosis:
Thunder Wave, FP/Hypnosis Misses, Psychic CHs: 12.890625% Thunder Wave, Hypnosis hits: 45% Thunder Wave, FP/Hypnosis Misses, Psychic non-CH, FP/Hypnosis Misses: 23.1601562% Thunder Wave, FP/Hypnosis Misses, Psychic non-CH, Hypnosis hits: 18.9492187%
Alakazam "wins" 36.0507812% of the time. Gengar hits Hypnosis 63.9492187% of the time.
And Alakazam using Thunder Wave, followed by Psychic, and Gengar using Explosion:
Thunder Wave, FP, Psychic CHs: 5.859375 Thunder Wave, Explosion KOs: 55.3710937% Thunder Wave, Explosion doesn't KO: 19.6289062% Thunder Wave, FP, Psychic non-CH, FP: 4.78515625% Thunder Wave, FP, Psychic non-CH, Explosion KOs: 10.5983734 Thunder Wave, FP, Psychic non-CH, Explosion doesn't KO: 3.7570953%
Alakazam "wins" 34.03053275% of the time. Gengar KOs Alakazam 65.96946725% of the time.
With all this, the next bit of information involves Gengar returning later vs Tauros, which is a common situation since Gengar speed ties him and can blow up. Of course, Gengar may be taken out beforehand, but I think most people agree that a Gengar lead vs Alakazam leading to Gengar vs Tauros is fairly common.
If Alakazam used Psychic only:
Psychic CH'd: 23.4375% Tauros wins 100% (since Gengar's dead lol)
Psychic didn't CH: 76.5625% Tauros wins by winning speed tie: 50%
So Gengar can use Explosion 38.28125% of the time, and hit Hypnosis 22.96875% of the time.
If Alakazam used Thunder Wave first:
Paralyzed + non-CH Psychic: 42.109375% Tauros wins 100%
Paralyzed + CH Psychic: 12.890625% Tauros wins 100% (since Gengar is dead)
Paralyzed only: 45% Tauros wins 41.11132812%
So Gengar can use Explosion 26.4990234% of the time, and hit Hypnosis 15.89941404% of the time.
---
So to sum up, if Alakazam uses Thunder Wave first instead of only Psychic: -Alakazam gets hit by Hypnosis +18.0117188% extra -Tauros KOs Gengar before Explosion +11.7822266% extra -Tauros KOs Gengar before Hypnosis hits +7.06933596% extra -Gengar has less pressure power due to lowered Speed -Thunder Wave covers switch-ins -FPs allow other Pokemon to fight Gengar, at the cost of ~2 turns to KO for most Pokemon (so a net loss in general) -Alakazam is hit by Explosion +12.7929687% extra -Alakazam is KO'd by Explosion +9.444808897% extra
|
|