CANCELED - "No Rules" Haxfest Tournament
Jan 14, 2013 21:31:07 GMT -8
Post by lilith on Jan 14, 2013 21:31:07 GMT -8
ATTENTION
After only two entrants in a 50 day signup period, I have decided to close this tournament.
With the RBYPlus tournament and the impending March anniversary activities (whatever they may be) it really isn't a good time to have this going. Feel free to play matches with friends and post the logs. You can also use the tournament feature on NBS or PO if the scripts are up.
Generate support first and then try this again sometime after March.
WW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
hai guys, who wants to do this?
entrants:
i was inspired a bit by the 1v1 with sleep metagame but felt it was a little simple and wondered what it would look like with some of the complexity of 6v6 added in...
other clauses are off for lulz / coz they probably don't make a difference considering a 75% accuracy OHKO move is legal.
1dumping some edited mini-analysis i mostly did when planning for the 1v1 tournament which should serve to explain the gengar ban:
haunter has the same issues and jynx is even stronger if gengar's not there to check her. with all three banned, venomoth is the fastest sleep user, and venomoth is much easier to deal with, while checking all of the stronger but slower sleep users.
After only two entrants in a 50 day signup period, I have decided to close this tournament.
With the RBYPlus tournament and the impending March anniversary activities (whatever they may be) it really isn't a good time to have this going. Feel free to play matches with friends and post the logs. You can also use the tournament feature on NBS or PO if the scripts are up.
Generate support first and then try this again sometime after March.
WW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
hai guys, who wants to do this?
- Round robin, first to 3, PO
- Sleep clause is off
- Freeze clause is off
- Species clause is off
- Self-KO clause is off; a tie is a loss for both players
- Gengar with Hypnosis, Jynx with Lovely Kiss, and Haunter with Hypnosis are underage b&1 (but Mewtwo and Mew are not)
- All moves are allowed (including evasion, OHKO, and trapping moves)
entrants:
- lilith
- agentsyrup
i was inspired a bit by the 1v1 with sleep metagame but felt it was a little simple and wondered what it would look like with some of the complexity of 6v6 added in...
other clauses are off for lulz / coz they probably don't make a difference considering a 75% accuracy OHKO move is legal.
1dumping some edited mini-analysis i mostly did when planning for the 1v1 tournament which should serve to explain the gengar ban:
sleepafusion set is scary:
Gengar
- Hypnosis
- Substitute
- Confuse Ray
- Night Shade / Seismic Toss
against a faster attacker that wakes up after one turn:
- Substitute gives a 60% chance to Hypnosis without getting hit, a 24% chance to Hypnosis after getting hit once, and a 9.6% chance to Hypnosis after getting hit twice.
- Confuse Ray (even assuming confusion doesn't end) gives a P=.5*(.6 + .4*P)=37.5% chance to Hypnosis without getting hit, a P=.5*(.6 + .4*.375) + .5*(.4*P)=.5*(.6 + .55*P)=41.38% chance to Hypnosis after getting hit once, and generally seems like a lower priority against non-sleeper threats.
the only positive matchups i can think of against gengar:
Mewtwo
- Psychic
- Splash
- Splash
- Splash
Alakazam
- Psychic
- Recover
- Seismic Toss
- Reflect / Thunder Wave
t-wave is extremely situational in 6v6 to say the least.
Dugtrio
- Earthquake
- Slash
- Rock Slide
- Hyper Beam
slash and h-beam are for eggy, rock slide is for jynx. body slam is quite a risk.
Starmie
- Psychic
- Recover
- Blizzard / Thunderbolt / Surf / Thunder Wave
- Blizzard / Thunderbolt / Surf / Thunder Wave
starmie has a 1.1% lower ch rate than zam/dugtrio, making it slightly worse of a gengar check. blizzard for eggy, thunderbolt for other starmies, surf for everything else.
each of these have around a .23 + .77*(.4) = 53.8% chance to 1-2hko gengar before getting hit by hypnosis. mewtwo has a .254 + .746*(.4) = 55.24% chance. let's call this a 60% winrate at best.
rumours of tauros having a positive matchup against gengar have been greatly exaggerated:
First: 50%
* Hit: 60%
* Miss: 40%
* * CH: 21.5%
* * 2hko: 78.5% -> 30% first&hit win
Second: 50%
* CH: 21.5%
* 2hko: 78.5%
* * Hit: 60%
* * Miss: 40% -> 30% first&hit win
.5*(.6 + .4*(.785*.3)) + .5*(.785*(.6 + .4*.3)) = 62.97% for Hypnosis to hit
this number doesn't account for 0-turn sleeps, but those are rare enough and aren't even an instant loss for gengar.
jolteon's pin missile is too weak to do anything. persian and aerodactyl can't earthquake, electrode is electrode, and that just about covers the gengar speed tier.
possibly incomplete list of things that at least have a chance to beat gengar before getting hit by hypnosis:
via their own sleep move (neither side's chance to wake up is reflected, so everyone probably gains a tiny bit in reality, and chansey and the psychic types probably gain a couple more percentage points than the others):
parasect (40%), exeggutor / jynx / venusaur / tangela / victreebel / venomoth / butterfree / vileplume (30%), hypno / poliwrath (24%), chansey / lapras / clefable / wigglytuff (22%)
via earthquake (chance to wake up isn't reflected by the numbers, so add a few percentage points here and there):
rhydon (40%), golem (nearly 40%), tauros (37%), sandslash (~23%, must crit or roll high), nidoking (rarely), various others but only with a CH
Gengar
- Hypnosis
- Substitute
- Confuse Ray
- Night Shade / Seismic Toss
against a faster attacker that wakes up after one turn:
- Substitute gives a 60% chance to Hypnosis without getting hit, a 24% chance to Hypnosis after getting hit once, and a 9.6% chance to Hypnosis after getting hit twice.
- Confuse Ray (even assuming confusion doesn't end) gives a P=.5*(.6 + .4*P)=37.5% chance to Hypnosis without getting hit, a P=.5*(.6 + .4*.375) + .5*(.4*P)=.5*(.6 + .55*P)=41.38% chance to Hypnosis after getting hit once, and generally seems like a lower priority against non-sleeper threats.
the only positive matchups i can think of against gengar:
Mewtwo
- Psychic
- Splash
- Splash
- Splash
Alakazam
- Psychic
- Recover
- Seismic Toss
- Reflect / Thunder Wave
t-wave is extremely situational in 6v6 to say the least.
Dugtrio
- Earthquake
- Slash
- Rock Slide
- Hyper Beam
slash and h-beam are for eggy, rock slide is for jynx. body slam is quite a risk.
Starmie
- Psychic
- Recover
- Blizzard / Thunderbolt / Surf / Thunder Wave
- Blizzard / Thunderbolt / Surf / Thunder Wave
starmie has a 1.1% lower ch rate than zam/dugtrio, making it slightly worse of a gengar check. blizzard for eggy, thunderbolt for other starmies, surf for everything else.
each of these have around a .23 + .77*(.4) = 53.8% chance to 1-2hko gengar before getting hit by hypnosis. mewtwo has a .254 + .746*(.4) = 55.24% chance. let's call this a 60% winrate at best.
rumours of tauros having a positive matchup against gengar have been greatly exaggerated:
First: 50%
* Hit: 60%
* Miss: 40%
* * CH: 21.5%
* * 2hko: 78.5% -> 30% first&hit win
Second: 50%
* CH: 21.5%
* 2hko: 78.5%
* * Hit: 60%
* * Miss: 40% -> 30% first&hit win
.5*(.6 + .4*(.785*.3)) + .5*(.785*(.6 + .4*.3)) = 62.97% for Hypnosis to hit
this number doesn't account for 0-turn sleeps, but those are rare enough and aren't even an instant loss for gengar.
jolteon's pin missile is too weak to do anything. persian and aerodactyl can't earthquake, electrode is electrode, and that just about covers the gengar speed tier.
possibly incomplete list of things that at least have a chance to beat gengar before getting hit by hypnosis:
via their own sleep move (neither side's chance to wake up is reflected, so everyone probably gains a tiny bit in reality, and chansey and the psychic types probably gain a couple more percentage points than the others):
parasect (40%), exeggutor / jynx / venusaur / tangela / victreebel / venomoth / butterfree / vileplume (30%), hypno / poliwrath (24%), chansey / lapras / clefable / wigglytuff (22%)
via earthquake (chance to wake up isn't reflected by the numbers, so add a few percentage points here and there):
rhydon (40%), golem (nearly 40%), tauros (37%), sandslash (~23%, must crit or roll high), nidoking (rarely), various others but only with a CH
haunter has the same issues and jynx is even stronger if gengar's not there to check her. with all three banned, venomoth is the fastest sleep user, and venomoth is much easier to deal with, while checking all of the stronger but slower sleep users.