Alakazam vs Tauros

[truedragons]

I think the other guy could have won if he played his Alakazam right when facing my Tauros but I'm not so sure. What should he have done in that situation?
pokemonshowdown.com/replay/gen1oubeta-43232897
PrimeRuler joined.
shadowist joined.
Format:
[Gen 1] OU (beta)
Rated battle
Sleep Clause Mod: Limit one foe put to sleep
Species Clause: Limit one of each Pokemon
OHKO Clause: OHKO moves are banned
Moody Clause: Moody is banned
Evasion Moves Clause: Evasion moves are banned
HP Percentage Mod: HP is reported as percentages
Battle between PrimeRuler and shadowist started!
Go! Starmie!
shadowist sent out Jynx!
Turn 1
Starmie used Thunder Wave!
The foe's Jynx is paralyzed! It may be unable to move!
The foe's Jynx used Lovely Kiss!
Starmie fell asleep!
Turn 2
shadowist withdrew Jynx!
shadowist sent out Zapdos!
Starmie is fast asleep.
Turn 3
Starmie, come back!
Go! Golem!
The foe's Zapdos used Thunderbolt!
It doesn't affect Golem...
Turn 4
shadowist withdrew Zapdos!
shadowist sent out Starmie!
Golem used Body Slam!
The foe's Starmie lost 22.9% of its health!
Turn 5
Golem, come back!
Go! Chansey!
The foe's Starmie used Blizzard!
Chansey lost 13.8% of its health!
Turn 6
shadowist withdrew Starmie!
shadowist sent out Chansey!
Chansey used Thunder Wave!
The foe's Chansey is paralyzed! It may be unable to move!
Turn 7
Chansey, come back!
Go! Snorlax!
The foe's Chansey is paralyzed! It can't move!
Turn 8
Snorlax used Body Slam!
The foe's Chansey lost 40.7% of its health!
The foe's Chansey used Ice Beam!
Snorlax lost 20.3% of its health!
Turn 9
shadowist withdrew Chansey!
shadowist sent out Tauros!
Snorlax used Hyper Beam!
The foe's Tauros lost 53.0% of its health!
Turn 10
The foe's Tauros used Body Slam!
Snorlax lost 25.6% of its health!
Snorlax is paralyzed! It may be unable to move!
Snorlax must recharge!
Turn 11
Snorlax, come back!
Go! Golem!
The foe's Tauros used Body Slam!
It's not very effective... Golem lost 11.0% of its health!
Turn 12
shadowist withdrew Tauros!
shadowist sent out Jynx!
Golem, come back!
Go! Starmie!
Turn 13
shadowist withdrew Jynx!
shadowist sent out Chansey!
Starmie is fast asleep.
Turn 14
Starmie, come back!
Go! Snorlax!
The foe's Chansey used Ice Beam!
Snorlax lost 19.9% of its health!
Turn 15
The foe's Chansey used Softboiled!
The foe's Chansey regained health!
Snorlax used Body Slam!
The foe's Chansey lost 41.5% of its health!
Turn 16
The foe's Chansey used Ice Beam!
Snorlax lost 20.1% of its health!
Snorlax is paralyzed! It can't move!
Turn 17
The foe's Chansey used Ice Beam!
Snorlax lost 14.1% of its health!
Snorlax fainted!
Go! Tauros!
Turn 18
Tauros used Hyper Beam!
The foe's Chansey lost 58.5% of its health!
The foe's Chansey fainted!
shadowist sent out Alakazam!
Turn 19
Tauros, come back!
Go! Starmie!
The foe's Alakazam used Reflect!
Turn 20
shadowist withdrew Alakazam!
shadowist sent out Starmie!
Starmie is fast asleep.
Turn 21
Starmie, come back!
Go! Chansey!
The foe's Starmie used Thunderbolt!
Chansey lost 11.1% of its health!
Turn 22
shadowist withdrew Starmie!
shadowist sent out Jynx!
Chansey used Thunderbolt!
The foe's Jynx lost 24.6% of its health!
Turn 23
Chansey, come back!
Go! Starmie!
The foe's Jynx used Blizzard!
It's not very effective... Starmie lost 21.7% of its health!
Turn 24
shadowist withdrew Jynx!
shadowist sent out Tauros!
Starmie is fast asleep.
Turn 25
Starmie is fast asleep.
The foe's Tauros used Earthquake!
Starmie lost 26.9% of its health!
Turn 26
Starmie is fast asleep.
Starmie woke up!
The foe's Tauros used Hyper Beam!
The foe's Tauros's attack missed!
Turn 27
Starmie used Recover!
Starmie regained health!
The foe's Tauros used Hyper Beam!
A critical hit! Starmie lost 100% of its health!
Starmie fainted!
shadowist: i guess that makes up 4 it :-)
Go! Exeggutor!
Turn 28
shadowist withdrew Tauros!
shadowist sent out Jynx!
Exeggutor used Stun Spore!
The foe's Jynx is already paralyzed.
Turn 29
Exeggutor, come back!
Go! Chansey!
The foe's Jynx used Lovely Kiss!
The foe's Jynx's attack missed!
Turn 30
Chansey used Thunderbolt!
The foe's Jynx lost 24.9% of its health!
The foe's Jynx used Lovely Kiss!
Chansey fell asleep!
Turn 31
shadowist withdrew Jynx!
shadowist sent out Tauros!
Chansey is fast asleep.
Turn 32
Chansey, come back!
Go! Exeggutor!
The foe's Tauros used Blizzard!
A critical hit! It's super effective! Exeggutor lost 71.2% of its health!
Turn 33
The foe's Tauros used Blizzard!
It's super effective! Exeggutor lost 28.8% of its health!
Exeggutor fainted!
Go! Tauros!
Turn 34
The foe's Tauros used Body Slam!
Tauros lost 29.7% of its health!
Tauros used Body Slam!
The foe's Tauros lost 30.0% of its health!
The foe's Tauros is paralyzed! It may be unable to move!
Turn 35
Tauros used Body Slam!
The foe's Tauros lost 17.0% of its health!
The foe's Tauros fainted!
shadowist sent out Starmie!
Turn 36
Tauros, come back!
Go! Chansey!
The foe's Starmie used Thunder Wave!
But it failed!
Turn 37
shadowist withdrew Starmie!
shadowist sent out Alakazam!
Chansey is fast asleep.
Turn 38
The foe's Alakazam used Reflect!
Chansey is fast asleep.
Chansey woke up!
Turn 39
shadowist withdrew Alakazam!
shadowist sent out Jynx!
Chansey used Thunder Wave!
The foe's Jynx is already paralyzed.
Turn 40
Chansey used Thunderbolt!
The foe's Jynx lost 21.6% of its health!
The foe's Jynx used Lovely Kiss!
Chansey fell asleep!
Turn 41
Chansey is fast asleep.
The foe's Jynx used Blizzard!
Chansey lost 18.8% of its health!
Turn 42
Chansey is fast asleep.
The foe's Jynx used Blizzard!
Chansey lost 17.4% of its health!
Turn 43
Chansey is fast asleep.
Chansey woke up!
The foe's Jynx is paralyzed! It can't move!
Turn 44
PrimeRuler: wake up, you idiot
Chansey used Softboiled!
Chansey regained health!
The foe's Jynx used Lovely Kiss!
Chansey fell asleep!
Turn 45
shadowist withdrew Jynx!
shadowist sent out Alakazam!
Chansey is fast asleep.
Turn 46
The foe's Alakazam used Psychic!
Chansey lost 18.8% of its health!
Chansey is fast asleep.
Turn 47
The foe's Alakazam used Psychic!
Chansey lost 18.3% of its health!
Chansey is fast asleep.
Chansey woke up!
Turn 48
The foe's Alakazam used Psychic!
A critical hit! Chansey lost 33.3% of its health!
Chansey used Thunderbolt!
The foe's Alakazam lost 18.5% of its health!
Turn 49
The foe's Alakazam used Psychic!
Chansey lost 18.3% of its health!
Chansey used Softboiled!
Chansey regained health!
Turn 50
shadowist withdrew Alakazam!
shadowist sent out Jynx!
Chansey used Thunder Wave!
The foe's Jynx is already paralyzed.
Turn 51
Chansey used Thunderbolt!
The foe's Jynx lost 24.3% of its health!
The foe's Jynx used Lovely Kiss!
The foe's Jynx's attack missed!
Turn 52
Chansey used Thunderbolt!
The foe's Jynx lost 4.2% of its health!
The foe's Jynx fainted!
shadowist sent out Zapdos!
Turn 53
shadowist withdrew Zapdos!
shadowist sent out Starmie!
Chansey, come back!
Go! Golem!
Turn 54
Golem, come back!
Go! Chansey!
The foe's Starmie used Blizzard!
Chansey lost 14.1% of its health!
Turn 55
shadowist withdrew Starmie!
shadowist sent out Zapdos!
Chansey used Softboiled!
Chansey regained health!
Turn 56
The foe's Zapdos used Thunder Wave!
Chansey is paralyzed! It may be unable to move!
Chansey is paralyzed! It can't move!
Turn 57
The foe's Zapdos used Drill Peck!
Chansey lost 34.9% of its health!
Chansey used Thunder Wave!
The foe's Zapdos is paralyzed! It may be unable to move!
Turn 58
Chansey, come back!
Go! Golem!
The foe's Zapdos is paralyzed! It can't move!
Turn 59
shadowist withdrew Zapdos!
shadowist sent out Starmie!
Golem used Body Slam!
The foe's Starmie lost 22.9% of its health!
The foe's Starmie is paralyzed! It may be unable to move!
Turn 60
Golem, come back!
Go! Chansey!
The foe's Starmie used Recover!
The foe's Starmie regained health!
Turn 61
shadowist withdrew Starmie!
shadowist sent out Zapdos!
Chansey is paralyzed! It can't move!
Turn 62
The foe's Zapdos used Drill Peck!
Chansey lost 35.6% of its health!
Chansey is paralyzed! It can't move!
Turn 63
Chansey, come back!
Go! Golem!
The foe's Zapdos is paralyzed! It can't move!
Turn 64
shadowist withdrew Zapdos!
shadowist sent out Starmie!
Golem used Earthquake!
The foe's Starmie lost 45.2% of its health!
Turn 65
Golem used Earthquake!
The foe's Starmie lost 41.5% of its health!
The foe's Starmie used Blizzard!
It's super effective! Golem lost 70.5% of its health!
Turn 66
shadowist withdrew Starmie!
shadowist sent out Zapdos!
Golem used Body Slam!
The foe's Zapdos lost 20.6% of its health!
Turn 67
Golem used Rock Slide!
It's super effective! The foe's Zapdos lost 50.4% of its health!
The foe's Zapdos used Drill Peck!
It's not very effective... Golem lost 9.9% of its health!
Turn 68
Golem used Rock Slide!
It's super effective! The foe's Zapdos lost 29.0% of its health!
The foe's Zapdos fainted!
shadowist sent out Alakazam!
Turn 69
The foe's Alakazam used Psychic!
A critical hit! Golem lost 8.5% of its health!
Golem fainted!
Go! Tauros!
Turn 70
The foe's Alakazam used Reflect!
Tauros used Body Slam!
A critical hit! The foe's Alakazam lost 81.5% of its health!
The foe's Alakazam fainted!
PrimeRuler: ouch
shadowist sent out Starmie!
Turn 71
PrimeRuler: gg
Tauros used Body Slam!
The foe's Starmie lost 13.3% of its health!
The foe's Starmie fainted!
PrimeRuler won the battle!
Ladder updating...
PrimeRuler's rating: 1834 ? 1837
(+3 for winning)
shadowist's rating: 1716 ? 1698
(-18 for losing)
shadowist: gg

[jorgen]

Psychic was the best move there. Tauros OHKOs at that point with Hyper Beam, but given how Zam showed Reflect earlier it's unlikely Tauros will risk that. Thus, you use Psychic to hope you Crit and OHKO right there, and if you don't OHKO, you hope Bslam doesn't para or crit in return.

Granted, if Tauros Hyper Beams there, Reflect is the best play.

[magic9mushroom]

You might find it helpful to bold the bit you want to show off.

Also, I don't see much special about that specific matchup in this battle. Zam v Tauros can go either way, everyone knows that.

[truedragons]

Aug 5, 2013 17:48:37 GMT -8 magic9mushroom said:

You might find it helpful to bold the bit you want to show off.

Also, I don't see much special about that specific matchup in this battle. Zam v Tauros can go either way, everyone knows that.

Yeah, I probably should have just posted this in the discussion section(who wins a 1v1: Alakazam vs Tauros) even though that might not get many views. And no, I didn't know that. I thought Zam had the advantage.

[magic9mushroom]

Aug 5, 2013 18:34:06 GMT -8 truedragons said:

Aug 5, 2013 17:48:37 GMT -8 magic9mushroom said:

You might find it helpful to bold the bit you want to show off.

Also, I don't see much special about that specific matchup in this battle. Zam v Tauros can go either way, everyone knows that.

Yeah, I probably should have just posted this in the discussion section(who wins a 1v1: Alakazam vs Tauros) even though that might not get many views. And no, I didn't know that. I thought Zam had the advantage.

ReflectZam beats Snorlax, yeah, but against Tauros it's up in the air because Tauros has a 21.5% crit rate and thus stands a good chance of critting (which does double damage and ignores Reflect, making Hyper Beam an OHKO and Body Slam a possible OHKO) before Zam can kill it (Zam will 2HKO more often than not, but it's far from assured at ~60%).

[Isa]

Here's an old fun debate that I revived from the graveyard, revolving around Zam vs. Tauros. It's accurate as long as you assume Zam does not have Reflect. =p

rby2k10.proboards.com/thread/1873/

tl;dr - Alakazam has a 38% chance to win vs. Tauros if both are fresh and Zam does not carry Reflect, the way to go is to spam Psychic. We have not calculated anything involving Reflect.

[magic9mushroom]

Aug 6, 2013 0:42:32 GMT -8 Isa said:

Here's an old fun debate that I revived from the graveyard, revolving around Zam vs. Tauros. It's accurate as long as you assume Zam does not have Reflect. =p

rby2k10.proboards.com/thread/1873/

tl;dr - Alakazam has a 38% chance to win vs. Tauros if both are fresh and Zam does not carry Reflect, the way to go is to spam Psychic. We have not calculated anything involving Reflect.

Doesn't Zam have a slight chance to 2HKO without any crits or spec-downs? Tiny, yes, but if you're being that precise about the numbers...

[jorgen]

Yeah, Zam does have a VERY slight chance to 2HKO Tauros. It requires a couple near-max damage rolls, though, which amounts to something like 3/39*2/39 (correct me if I'm wrong here, I pulled these numbers outta my ass), which makes it roughly as likely as a 255 miss, ergo negligible.

As for Reflect calcs, there's a very good reason we haven't done that. It's way too complicated! You have points in the matchup where you have to account for Alakazam using any of its moves, so you end up having to compare what are technically a bunch of unique strategies.

Also keep in mind that the thread Isa linked doesn't prove that Zam should ALWAYS use Psychic; only if Zam NEEDS to win the 1v1 against Tauros. Oftentimes, if you have teammates that can handle a para'd Tauros, it's better to toss out a Thunder Wave. You have a lower percentage in the pure 1v1, but your team as a whole stands a much better chance against Tauros should Zam go down.

[lilith]

Aug 6, 2013 4:47:32 GMT -8 jorgen said:

As for Reflect calcs, there's a very good reason we haven't done that. It's way too complicated! You have points in the matchup where you have to account for Alakazam using any of its moves, so you end up having to compare what are technically a bunch of unique strategies.

this is where i'd offer to collect people's thoughts on optimal strategies for each side and then run a monte carlo so we could see the results! but i haven't implemented the hbeam recovery turn yet in my sim... i could do it if there's enough interest though and people care enough to write out strategies to decide a move as a function of (zam hp, tauros hp, zam paralysis, tauros paralysis, tauros hbeam recovery flag, [and rng coz there's a nash equilibrium involving hbeam and recover when zam outspeeds]). it is quite a bit moar complicated than the starmie example, though...

or maybe people don't care that much

[Isa]

Aug 6, 2013 4:47:32 GMT -8 jorgen said:

Yeah, Zam does have a VERY slight chance to 2HKO Tauros. It requires a couple near-max damage rolls, though, which amounts to something like 3/39*2/39 (correct me if I'm wrong here, I pulled these numbers outta my ass), which makes it roughly as likely as a 255 miss, ergo negligible.

This is what everyone believes - BUT! Due to the rounding that's not done in automatic calculations, but are done in PO (as well as in the cartridge, so they're correct), a Psychic CH can deal 352,5 = 352 HP at most, meaning that it's impossible to get a OHKO with Psychic on Tauros.

[jorgen]

I wasn't talking about crit OHKOs though, I was talking about cold 2HKOs. The crit formula is not quite as simple as double damage, so using crit damage doesn't pass as a formal analysis of the chances to 2HKO. Psychic will do 151-178 damage to a Tauros with 353 HP, which means a damage range of 302-356 after two Psychics.

[Isa]

I have no idea why I started to read 2HKO as OHKO. My bad.

[Isa]

Now with that said, I did the formal calculations on the odds off two Psychics KOing despite no Sp. Drop or CH, and if you get two very high rolls in a row, you can indeed kill Tauros - with a chance of 12/1521, or ~0.7%.

[magic9mushroom]

Aug 6, 2013 11:01:34 GMT -8 Isa said:

Now with that said, I did the formal calculations on the odds off two Psychics KOing despite no Sp. Drop or CH, and if you get two very high rolls in a row, you can indeed kill Tauros - with a chance of 12/1521, or ~0.7%.

Thanks. I knew it wasn't much.

[Dre]

I have to question how relevant the non-reflect MU is. A stosszam would rarely square off against a tauros 1v1 because if you're playing it right stosszam will most likely be asleep the entire battle, or wake up at the expense of taking damage (it does have recover though).

The reflectzam MU is much more relevant because reflectzam is naturally more likely to square off against tauros in the lategame because it is more of a lategame pokemon.

I think I'd just always twave, except in the scenario where I don't want to paralyse a chansey switch-in.

[Isa]

It happens from time to time. Ponder the following scenario:
SToss lead Zam versus lead Gengar. The Gengar switches to Chansey/Exeggutor, Alakazam switches to Exeggutor. Now it's no longer obvious that Zam has to take the sleep.
Also there's the first-turn wakeups, etc.

[Dre]

I agree that it can happen, but in the scenario you provided to me it should still be obvious that zam will be taking sleep. Any lead that isn't a sleeper should be taking sleep. Plus he's a better sleep absorber than eggy. If I was versing a really good player, I'd expect them to let zam take sleep in that situation.