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Post by t3h Icy on Dec 4, 2010 22:48:00 GMT -8
** Note: no conclusion is reached as these statistics remain incomplete ** -WW
WaterWizard believes you should use Psychic first and I suggest Thunder Wave first. And he's stubborn.
So let's do the math:
0.3 Special Fall first turn 0.7 no Special Fall first turn 0.412 chance of a CH across two turns 0.587 chance of no CH across two turns
Special Fall * CH = 0.1236 Special Fall * no CH = 0.1761 No Special Fall * CH = 0.2884 No Special Fall * no CH = 0.4109
58.91% chance of 2HKO (not factoring in Tauros stuff) 41.09% chance of 3HKO (not factoring in Tauros stuff)
So if you use Psychic first, following after, you have a 58.91% chance to 2HKO and a 41.09% chance to 3HKO. But let's factor in Tauros's CH rate and Paralysis.
Since Tauros won't be Paralyzed, a Paralyzing Body Slam means you can't do the 2HKO. I'm also assuming Tauros finishes Alakazam off with Hyper Beam.
Body Slam Paralysis: 0.3 Body Slam no Paralysis: 0.7
Hyper Beam hits 0.9 Hyper Beam misses 0.1
FP = 0.25 No FP = 0.75
2HKO chance * No Paralysis= 0.41237 2HKO chance * Paralysis * Hyper Beam miss * No FP = 0.013
So the total at this point is about 42% (0.4256)
Tauros Body Slam CH = 0.215 Tauros Body Slam no CH = 0.785
(To KO with a CH, you need 231 or higher with the random number)
Tauros CH enough to OHKO = 0.64 Tauros CH doesn't OHKO = 0.35
0.4256 (Chance thus far) * 0.785 (no CH) = 0.334 0.4256 (Chance thus far) * 0.215 (CH) * 0.35 (low damage) = 0.032
So the grand total to 2HKO using Psychic with Alakazam against a Tauros that uses Body Slam followed by Hyper Beam is 36.6%.
Now what I suggest: use Thunder Wave first.
With Thunder Wave, Alakazam is much safer in the event of a Paralyzing Body Slam, you get the benefit of Full Paralysis chances and if Tauros OHKOs, you leave the opponent with a Paralyzed Tauros as opposed to a damaged one. In the case that Tauros 2HKOs and you get to attack twice before dying, you either have a critically damage Tauros (~1-5% HP) by using two Psychics or a Paralyzed Tauros with ~50%ish HP left), by using Thunder Wave first.
FP = 0.25 No FP = 0.75
Tauros Body Slam CH = 0.215 Tauros Body Slam no CH = 0.785
(To KO with a CH, you need 231 or higher with the random number)
Tauros CH enough to OHKO = 0.64 Tauros CH doesn't OHKO = 0.35
Chance of Tauros OHKOing after you use Thunder Wave:
No FP * Body Slam CH * enough damage = 0.1032
So if you use Thunder Wave, you survive 89.68% of the time. Following this, you can Psychic, so long as you weren't hit by Body Slam, Paralyzed, you FP next turn AND Tauros doesn't FP.
Body Slam CH * low damage = 0.075 Body Slam no CH = 0.785
So without applying FPs, Alakazam survives exactly 86% of the time.
Body Slam Paralysis: 0.3 Body Slam no Paralysis: 0.7
No FP * 0.86 (Alakazam Survives) * Paralysis * FP (Alakazam) * No FP (Tauros) * Hyper Beam hit = 0.0327
Tauros has a 3.27% chance to Paralyze Alakazam and then KO if you use Thunder Wave first.
Thus, use Thunder Wave first and not Psychic.
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Twig
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Post by Twig on Dec 4, 2010 22:53:38 GMT -8
Whoa.
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Post by WaterWizard on Dec 4, 2010 22:57:38 GMT -8
No.
you didn't follow through to the conclusion of the T-wave first scenario... add in the 2nd (and 3rd if Tauros doesn't get to HB the 2nd turn) and even the 4th turn (because this is how long it might take Zam to KO tauros).
Also, for the first scenario, you didn't add in the chance for Zam to 1hko.
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Post by t3h Icy on Dec 4, 2010 23:03:44 GMT -8
The goal of Thunder Wave first isn't to KO, but to Paralyze and then (very likely) do damage after. Tauros at 5% can still sweep teams, Tauros at 55% and Paralyzed can't if your team has unparalyzed Pokemon.
Also the chance of a OHKO with Alakazam is low, but yes I didn't consider that.
Chance of Psychic CH: 0.234 Chance of doing enough damage: 0.077
Chance of OHKO: 0.018
That bumps up to 38.4% of a OHKO/2HKO. Again though, Tauros is left unparalyzed.
Don't forget that the chance to OHKO helps Thunder Wave first's scenario as well, but again, you just want to hit him once for the most part following Thunder Wave.
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Post by WaterWizard on Dec 4, 2010 23:09:37 GMT -8
it's misleading to say that you are correct, when your conclusion is to have a dead alakazam and a paralyzed weakened Tauros.
unless you complete the statistics for KO, you're comparing apples and oranges.
our approaches yield different results and are therefore not comparable nor is one inferior/superior.
although, i would say that my approach has a 38% chance to have a dead enemy tauros and an alive personal alakazam, whereas yours yields a dead personal alakazam, and crippled enemy tauros that can switch out and come back later to kill other crippled monsters.
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Post by t3h Icy on Dec 5, 2010 0:00:44 GMT -8
Fine. -_-
Case 1: Thunder Wave->FP
This puts you exactly as if you were to use Psychic first, except each turn, Tauros has to avoid FPing, and you're still faster if Tauros paralyzes you.
0.3 Special Fall first turn 0.7 no Special Fall first turn 0.412 chance of a CH across two turns 0.587 chance of no CH across two turnsSpecial Fall * CH = 0.1236 Special Fall * no CH = 0.1761 No Special Fall * CH = 0.2884 No Special Fall * no CH = 0.4109
58.91% chance of 2HKO (not factoring in Tauros stuff) 41.09% chance of 3HKO (not factoring in Tauros stuff)
Case 1a) OHKO:
Chance of OHKO: 0.018
FP * OHKO = 0.0045
So about 0.45% chance to Paralyze Tauros and then OHKO.
Case 1b) 2HKO:
0.5891 chance to 2HKO based just on using Psychic twice.
No FP * Body Slam CH * enough damage = 0.1032 Not the above: 0.8968
Tauros FP 1st turn * 2HKO chance * not dying 2nd turn: 0.132 Tauros FP 1st turn * 2HKO chance * not dying 2nd turn * Paraslam * No FP (Alakazam): 0.03
So there's a 13.2% chance of Tauros FPing, you 2HKOing and not dying. This also excludes both Pokemon continuing in double FP loops.
Case 1c) 3HKO:
41.09% chance of 3HKO (not factoring in Tauros stuff)
Tauros FP 1st turn * 3HKO chance: 0.103
That's the base for what's to come. To 3HKO, Tauros gets two turns to attack.
0.075 BS CH not enough Tauros Body Slam CH = 0.215 Tauros Body Slam no CH = 0.785
FP * FP: 0.0625 No FP * Body Slam CH * not enough * FP: 0.014 FP * Body Slam CH * not enough * No FP: 0.014 No FP * Body Slam CH * not enough * No FP * Hyper Beam miss: 0.042 FP * Body Slam no CH * No FP: 0.147 No FP * Body Slam no CH * FP: 0.147 No FP * Body Slam no CH * No FP * CH * Hyper Beam miss: 0.109
Sub-Total: 0.5355 Base * sub-total: 0.055
This is all we care about since everything else kills Alakazam.
And we also multiply this by the chance of not being Paralyzed/Paralyzed no FP.
No Paralysis: 0.7 Paralysis * No FP (Alakazam): 0.225
0.925 * base * sub-total: 0.05 (5.1%)
CASE 1 TOTAL: 18.75% of KOing Tauros after Thunder Wave and a FP the first turn.
Case 2: Thunder Wave->No FP
0.75 for no FP
The Body Slam doesn't OHKO: 0.8968
So this comes to 0.6726 as our base for the following cases.
Base * No Para * OHKO (Alakazam): 0.008 Base * No Para * 2HKO (Alakazam) * FP: 0.069 Base * No Para * 2HKO (Alakazam) * * No FP * Hyper Beam miss: 0.021 Base * No Para * 3HKO (Alakazam) * FP * FP: 0.012 Base * No Para * 3HKO (Alakazam) * FP * No FP * Hyper Beam miss: 0.004 Base * No Para * 3HKO (Alakazam) * No FP * Hyper Beam miss * FP: 0.004 Base * No Para * 3HKO (Alakazam) * No FP * No FP * Hyper Beam miss * Hyper Beam miss: 0.001
This chunk totals to 10.7%. Now if we divide it by 0.7 and multiply it by 0.3 (to undo no paralysis Body Slam and consider paralysis), we get 0.046. At this point, we can end up in endless FP loops, so let's just approximate (lol), by considering avoiding FP once, which drops that to 3.45%.
CASE 2 TOTAL: ~14.15%
GRAND FUCKING TOTAL: 32.9%
So if we use Thunder Wave first, we still have a 32.9% chance of beating Tauros as opposed to 38.4% if we use Psychic first. However, if Tauros runs you down, you either leave Tauros at about half HP and Paralyzed or with a hair left. Or if Tauros OHKOs, you either Paralyze him or do ~50%ish.
SO THERE YOU HAVE IT WATERWIZARD. Use Thunder Wave first.
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Post by posthuman on Dec 5, 2010 0:04:58 GMT -8
WW's kinda right, the chances of the same outcome occurring should be compared to see how they differ.
So maybe WW's strategy is more effective in killing Tauros, but it's risky as Zam can get paralyzed by a Body Slam and killed. Icy's has a more certain outcome because Tauros will always be crippled in the end, even if he isn't dead.
I'd say the choice you make in this situation is... situational. Using Psychic first will give you a greater chance in killing Tauros, so if you really need to keep your Zam alive, use this method. If you'd rather be certain Tauros can't sweep, paralyze him first and do damage after, revenge killing him if Zam doesn't survive.
To add my opinion, I usually paralyze first, but I'll do damage first if a paralyzed Tauros could still sweep me.
Haha I love how nobody else does analyses like these. I'm not sure if anyone else has taken stats, but I have; it's really not that hard. I just wouldn't enjoy doing it. Although, stats is certainly necessary for my area of study.
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Post by t3h Icy on Dec 5, 2010 0:08:28 GMT -8
5.5% extra chance vs Paralysis.
Also like I've said before, consistency is a great thing to have, which my method has.
Also this is why RBY appears simple but can be really deep if you decide to go digging.
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Nerd
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Post by Nerd on Dec 5, 2010 9:19:11 GMT -8
Your actions in this situation really depend on the state of both your teams... if your opponent is on his last pokemon while you still have several slower pokemon, t-wave is the obvious answer. If you're 1-on-1 at the end, it seems psychic would be better. In an early-to-mid game situation, where your opponent is more likely to switch, you have a lot more to consider.
By the way, if you are using a T-wave / psychic / recover / reflect alakazam, would you advise against using reflect in a 1-on-1 scenario?
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Post by t3h Icy on Dec 5, 2010 10:58:30 GMT -8
Don't forget this assumed spamming Psychic. When using Thunder Wave, you also gain the option of using Recover in hopes of FPs, and you could combine Reflect.
Since Body Slam will be killing you only with a CH in most cases (unless you FP a lot), Reflect isn't great, unless you're avoiding ranges from the following Pokemon. Reflect is nice before Hyper Beam if you can survive it.
I recommend Reflect vs Snorlax though since his CH rate is abysmal and you can just spam Recover, so long as Snorlax doesn't Paralyze you. Thunder Wave also doesn't help as much except for FPs since Snorlax is already so slow. It is nice if you want your own Paralyzed Pokemon to attack first later.
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Post by WaterWizard on Dec 5, 2010 11:16:20 GMT -8
Thanks to posthuman for explaining why I find it amusing that you still say "so T-wave is better" after your calculations say the exact opposite! I agree with you guys; your choice depends on the team conditions. Also, this whole scenario is of course highly situational (which Icy and I agreed when we started the discussion), as you're very unlikely to have fresh Tauros vs fresh Alakazam and have both pokes stay in, and not use utilize Reflect/Recover.
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Post by garrinred on Jul 27, 2011 19:40:32 GMT -8
At the risk of reviving a dead argument, what about using Reflect first?
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Post by WaterWizard on Jul 27, 2011 19:45:08 GMT -8
yes, Reflect is definitely an option. This thread was just the result of a long debate on the netbattle server one evening.
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Post by garrinred on Jul 27, 2011 20:11:46 GMT -8
I wonder if Icy will run the stats on it. ^_^
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Post by Crystal_ on Oct 25, 2011 10:26:45 GMT -8
so can anyone ensure in last poke scenario which of reflect/wave/psychic is better...?
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Isa
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Post by Isa on Oct 25, 2011 11:34:39 GMT -8
Psychic > TWave in the pure 1v1, at least.
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Post by garrinred on Oct 25, 2011 12:54:02 GMT -8
Reflect > T-wave > Psychic overall.
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Post by posthuman on Oct 25, 2011 22:42:27 GMT -8
this again? definitely not reflect first... tauros's crit rate is kind of high
It really depends on the situation, but usually TWave if you have a backup poke to finish Tauros and Psychic if you don't.
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Post by Crystal_ on Oct 26, 2011 1:46:18 GMT -8
Ok, I psychic'd yesterday...
and lost... but ok.
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Isa
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Post by Isa on Oct 26, 2011 1:52:27 GMT -8
Yeah, I used explosion the other day and got a 255...
and lost...but ok.
Crystal, psychic first still doesn't give Zam even 40% win ratio. You're not supposed to win, the odds are just higher.
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Post by garrinred on Oct 26, 2011 3:13:39 GMT -8
You ARE supposed to win with Reflect.
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Isa
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Post by Isa on Oct 26, 2011 3:49:02 GMT -8
No, because one CH over the course of two Body Slams means death. You have a 30,1% chance in two Tauros BSlams to avoid a CH and a Paraslam. That means 30,1% of you winning if you go Reflect-->Psychic (assuming that Zam can't OHKO with a Psychic CH), and probably lower if you go Reflect--TWave, and that's assuming Zam 2HKO's with Psychic, which he does only 58,91% of the time. If you get the 3HKO, what are you going to do...? Reflect+Psychic+Psychic+Psychic? That needs Tauros to not get a CH or Paralysis in three hits. 16,5% chance of Zam winning in that case, and that is assuming Tauros only uses Body Slam.
Reflect seems worse than TWave to me because the chance of either a CH or Paraslam combined is higher than the chance of a FP. Both spell the end for Zam - what are you going to do if the first hit is a paraslam? TWave and then Recover? That means that he gets 3 Body Slams in before you've even started to damage him, and you have to hit the TWave while paralyzed.
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Post by garrinred on Oct 26, 2011 8:40:23 GMT -8
First turn, Zam uses Reflect.
From here, Zam has a chance to survive the first turn Body Slam critical. I am not sure exactly what the random numbers say this chance is, but judging by max damage and Zam's HP, it appears to be around 30/51, or 60%.
So more or less the odds for turn 1 are: 54.6% no crit, no para. 6.6% crit + para (Zam = dead whether or not it's a lethal crit). 9.2% no para, nonlethal crit. 6.2% no para, lethal crit (Zam = dead). 23.4% para but no crit.
As you can see, this gets really complicated really fast.
In a no crit, no para scenario, Zam T-waves. In a no para, nonlethal crit scenario, Zam Recovers. In a para but no crit scenario, Zam T-waves.
From here on, we need to take FP chances into consideration in addition to everything else. No fun.
I don't have the time or patience to go through with the rest of the probabilities right now. I just wanted to introduce the concept of the non-lethal crit.
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Isa
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Post by Isa on Oct 26, 2011 8:58:43 GMT -8
Tauros Body Slam CH = 0.215 Tauros Body Slam no CH = 0.785
(To KO with a CH, you need 231 or higher with the random number)
Tauros CH enough to OHKO = 0.64 Tauros CH doesn't OHKO = 0.35
Wrong math, a CH has a much better chance to KO than not.
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Post by magic9mushroom on Aug 6, 2013 23:57:30 GMT -8
Tauros Body Slam CH = 0.215 Tauros Body Slam no CH = 0.785
(To KO with a CH, you need 231 or higher with the random number)
Tauros CH enough to OHKO = 0.64 Tauros CH doesn't OHKO = 0.35
Wrong math, a CH has a much better chance to KO than not. Really? The calculator I'm using says that a CH Body Slam does 284-334, avg 309. Zam has 313 HP. That looks like it's less likely to KO than to not KO.
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Isa
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Post by Isa on Aug 7, 2013 1:26:13 GMT -8
I didn't save my calculations that I made yesterday, but if I remember correctly, BSlam has a 21/39 chance to OHKO on a CH.
So I made my calcs again, and I get the max damage to be 342. ((0.84*2*85*298/188)+2)*1.5 = 342. And from there: 342*(217/255) = 291 342*(234/255) = 313 342*(233/255) = 312
"Much better" is an exaggeration, but the chances of a CH killing is higher than not.
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Post by magic9mushroom on Aug 7, 2013 3:28:31 GMT -8
I didn't save my calculations that I made yesterday, but if I remember correctly, BSlam has a 21/39 chance to OHKO on a CH. So I made my calcs again, and I get the max damage to be 342. ((0.84*2*85*298/188)+2)*1.5 = 342. And from there: 342*(217/255) = 291 342*(234/255) = 313 342*(233/255) = 312 "Much better" is an exaggeration, but the chances of a CH killing is higher than not. The 0.84 isn't doubled, it's changed to 1.64, because you double the level directly. That gives 334 max damage and 284 min damage, as I quoted earlier. It needs 94% or higher, so it's a 16/39 chance to OHKO (41%).
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Isa
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Post by Isa on Aug 7, 2013 3:40:30 GMT -8
I'm just gonna retire from math.
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Post by magic9mushroom on Aug 7, 2013 3:51:20 GMT -8
I'm just gonna retire from math. Everyone makes arithmetic errors. God knows the formula's complicated enough.
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Post by piexplode on May 29, 2014 6:04:17 GMT -8
So really in conclusion in t-wave vs psychic, the major difference is the state you leave tauros in. If it makes no difference to you at that point whether tauros is paralysed or not, psychic is best. If it does t-wave.
Are we getting anywhere with reflect and recover yet?
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