Isa
Member
FOREVER SECOND
Posts: 1,479
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Post by Isa on May 29, 2014 6:20:57 GMT -8
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Post by magic9mushroom on May 29, 2014 14:56:56 GMT -8
So really in conclusion in t-wave vs psychic, the major difference is the state you leave tauros in. If it makes no difference to you at that point whether tauros is paralysed or not, psychic is best. If it does t-wave. Are we getting anywhere with reflect and recover yet? As I said, solving that scenario is hard. You could Monte Carlo it, but I'm not going to.
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Post by cheese on May 29, 2014 20:50:22 GMT -8
The problem with factoring in Recover is that it adds mind games to the mix.
What if Tauros can KO with Hyper Beam but not Body Slam? Should Zam recover on the assumption that Tauros will Hyper Beam, or should it just Psychic, knowing it can KO next turn if Tauros Body Slams (and doesn't paralyse). This kind of thing prevents you from being able to reach fully fledged statistics on reasonable behaviour.
As others have pointed out it makes the situation a LOT more complicated too.
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Post by piexplode on May 30, 2014 7:03:19 GMT -8
Ultimately (whilst this is super complex) you get to the point where you essentially you work out the probability that you should make certain moves based on yours and your opponent's HP. Like game theory stuff
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Post by marcoasd on May 30, 2014 9:29:45 GMT -8
The problem with factoring in Recover is that it adds mind games to the mix. What if Tauros can KO with Hyper Beam but not Body Slam? Should Zam recover on the assumption that Tauros will Hyper Beam, or should it just Psychic, knowing it can KO next turn if Tauros Body Slams (and doesn't paralyse). This kind of thing prevents you from being able to reach fully fledged statistics on reasonable behaviour. As others have pointed out it makes the situation a LOT more complicated too. And this is what saves our game to be a war from robots. All we can do is knowing what can happen through multiple turns, and at the end of the day, we already know that Alakazam is going to avoid using Recover due to Tauros' CH rate and para chance. It will use Recover most of time if behind a Reflect, given that if your opponent is using Tauros vs your Alakazam, he is already in trouble and Zam can sweep. Thunder Wave is always the best move vs unpara'd Tauros, unless it's blatant the opposite: to me it's blatant that if I have a 70% Zam and a Tauros vs Tauros as the last one, I'm gonna use Psychic and take the HP advantage for the ditto, or things like that. There's nothing wrong in going Monte Carlo there, and knowing what the right call is (I don't know the maths, but I'm pretty sure you have to play that way).
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Post by piexplode on May 30, 2014 13:13:46 GMT -8
Agreed. You can at least go monte carlo in the endgame. No reason really not to.
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Post by magic9mushroom on Jun 5, 2014 1:09:21 GMT -8
I didn't say there was something WRONG with going Monte Carlo, just that I'm not going to do it. I'm not any more qualified for that than anybody else with a computer - I know bugger-all about programming.
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Post by Golden Gyarados on Feb 3, 2015 16:07:12 GMT -8
I'll just throw this in there now, even though it doesn't impact the math itself - these days, since Body Slam can't paralyze Tauros anymore (where Body Slams coming from other Tauros, Lax, Golem, Rhydon, etc, used to give you plenty of other opportunities to cripple it in the "old" days), T-Wave is more likely the far more appealing choice for me if you're not in the last Pokemon 1v1 situation. Since we're looking at a roughly 1 in 3 chance of winning the matchup directly whatever move we use first (which isn't all that high), I'd rather make sure I crippled the Tauros to pick it off later, than to hope I can outright kill. Even if Psychic ends up with the slight edge mathematically, T-Wave gets a situational boost.
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