Thunder Zapdos Viability

[Nitro]

We were discussing on NB the other day whether or not Thunder + tbolt Zapdos was worthy of consideration.

I'm not about to pull an Icy and list tons of damages, but just to kick off the discussion, I've found it fairly effective. One Thunder + one Thunderbolt is a guaranteed 2HKO on Tauros (so 70% shot since Thunder can miss). So you start Tauros with a Thunder and then finish with a tbolt. 70% accuracy, and maybe you'd like to roll the dice with twave and just ching or FPing Tauros, but this is probably the best statistical option (gives Tauros the least number of turns to par/ch you). Would you be willing to put a game on the line for Lovely Kiss or Sleep Powder? I think so. This is a nice option to have, especially if you're also using thunderbolt and can use Thunder exclusively when its the best option.

Starmie would be another example. If Starmie comes in full health and you can only take one more blizzard before dying yourself, Thunder gives you the option to go for a OHKO on average.

[t3h Icy]

Thunder is definitely viable, but like Hydro Pump, you have to setup the situations where it is viable. Thunder is a possible OHKO on Starmie about ~65% of the time (so about 45.5% per Thunder), but I'd use it more as a last resort. Thunder can also OHKO Slowbro, but again, consistency. It's not my personal playstyle, but it is viable if you set it up nicely.

Also you should always use Thunder Wave on a Pokemon that is faster, unless your Pokemon is Paralyzed itself (more times you have to avoid Full Paralysis).

[Nitro]

It's probably the GSC in me that drives these accuracy discussions. Damaging things is much more effective in RBY and outright KOing isn't as critical.

I'm not sure if I would bother twaving Tauros. He has great odds of paraslamming/ching you which would make this a wasted turn (doesn't even need to be the first bslam either, if Tauros regains the KO turn/speed advantage at any point twave is not worth it). Just 2HKO it (especially with a 15-16% shot of OHKOing).

[pocket]

In GSC onwards, Thunder has the 30% paralysis chance, which combined with its immense power that really makes a difference, makes it the preferred move over Thunderbolt, at least in GSC (a metagame where it is much easier to heal off damage)

Thunder in RBY is no different in terms of the additional power that will net some key OHKOs / 2HKOs that Tbolt misses, as nitro and Icy have mentioned above. On things like Starmie, Gyarados, (and possibly Lapras), too, Thunder allows these water mons to 2HKO opposing Starmie. However, the risk of a miss is huge. In RBY, where so many chance factors, especially crits, play a role in a match, I would value consistency over obtaining a potential 2HKO / OHKO 70% of the time. Thunder is definitely viable, and will come in handy when your Zapdos is faced against a full-health Tauros or Starmie / Slowbro, but a miss is much more unforgiving in RBY than in GSC.
EDIT: I am actually not sure why I am making a Thunder vs Tbolt argument, since this Zapdos has both moves available to it. My bad.

And unless Zapdos is your last pokemon, I would probably always T-Wave Tauros before Thunder + T-bolt.

Scenario 1: Tauros BSlam 2x + Hyper Beam; Zapdos Thunder + Tbolt
In order for Tauros to win (assuming crit rate to be 20% for Tauros and 18% for Zapdos (i dunno)
body slam crit + hyper beam (no Thunder crit / par) - (20% * 90% * 70% * 82%) + (20% * 90% * 70% * 90%) = 10.3% + 11.3% = 21.6%
Thunder miss = 30%
para slam AND fp (within 2 turns) + Hyper Beam (no Thunder Crit) = (7.5% * 90% * 70% * 82%) + (5% * 90% * 70% * 82%) + (5% * 90% * 70% *82%) = 3.8% + 2.9% + 2.7% =9.4%
Tauros Win Rate: 21.6% + 30% + 9.4% = 61%

Scenario 2: Tauros Blizzard 3x; Zapdos Thunder + Tbolt
Tauros wins if:
Either of the first 2 Blizzards crit (no Thunder crit / par = (18% * 70% * 82%) + (16.2% * 70% * 82%) + (18% * 70% * 90%) + (16.2% * 70% * 90%) = 10.3% + 9.3% + 11.3% + 10.2% = 41.1%
Either of the first 2 Blizzards frz (no Thunder crit / par) = 9% + (8.1% * 70% * 82%) + (8.1% * 70% * 90%) = 9% + 4.6% + 5.1% 18.7%
Thunder miss = 30%
Tauros Win Rate: 41.1% + 18.7% + 30% = 89.8%

Scenario 3: Tauros Body Slam -> Blizzard -> Hyper Beam; Zapdos Thunder + Tbolt
Tauros wins if:
crit on 1st BSlam + Hyper Beam (no Thunder crit / par) = (20% * 90% * 70% * 82%) + (20% * 90% * 70% 90%) = 21.6%
paraslam AND fp within first 2 turns + Blizzard + Hyper Beam (no Thunder crit) = (7.5% * 90% * 90% * 70% * 82%) + (5% * 90% * 90% * 70% * 82%) = 3.4% + 2.3% = 5.7%
Blizzard freezes (no Thunder crit / par) = (9% * 70% * 82%) + (9% * 70% * 90%) = 5.1% + 5.6 10.7%
Thunder miss = 30%
Tauros Win Rate: 21.6% + 5.7% + 10.7% + 30% = 68%

So, regardless of Thunder, Tauros will beat Zapdos more often than not. Thus, I would paralyze Tauros, just incase Zapdos was unable to defeat it, to minimize the damage an opposing Tauros can yield afterwards. You are both true, though, that the odds of Tauros beating Zapdos is much less pronounced than Zapdos without Thunder, making it a very viable move.

[Nitro]

I'm not sure if I read those calculations but it looks like you factored in Tauros ch/par opportunities while...ignoring Zapdos ch opportunities. Why? And if thats the case, its's certainly better odds for zapdos to win than going twave + tbolt (no ch) or tbolt + tbolt (no criticals).

Yea, there could definitely be spots where twave is the safer play if you have a couple pokes left and one explodes or something vs last poke tauros. The overall point is that you wouldn't want Thunder OVER thunderbolt. The idea is that Zapdos 4th move sucks anyway, so it might as well give him a better chance to beat some stuff.

[pocket]

I think I did include CH rate / par rate of Zapdos. Those (70% * 82%) or (70% * 90%) all account for the probability of Zapdos NOT CHing or NOT paralyzing during its one chance to beat Tauros during those circumstances favoring Tauros.

Yea, those scenarios were just to delineate how T-Wave is the better option, since Zapdos will most likely lose to a Tauros. Thunder is definitely a viable 4th move that increases Zapdos's chance of beating Tauros.

[Nitro]

Well something is off because just looking at Scenario 2 where you have Tauros winning 89% of the time, that's just not possible when even factoring in accuracy Thunder has more than an 11% chance to critical hit. Whatever the critical hit rate is after factoring in Thunder's accuracy (should be like 14 or 15%), Zapdos has AT LEAST that much chance to beat Tauros in any given scenario (except for Tauros Hyper Beam ch on turn 1, but Tauros wouldn't do that).

[pocket]

Hmm perhaps that Thunder-missing is already taken into account during my calculations. So perhaps the chance of Tauros winning is 30% less than what I have calculated?