Starmie's Sweeping

[t3h Icy]

EDIT: Read my next post for much more info.

While Thunderbolt and Blizzard/Ice Beam run more off of type effectiveness, Starmie's Surf, Psychic and Hydro Pump are useful due to STAB, but which is the best for sweeping with?

As far as type effectiveness goes, Psychic is useful for Gengar, but Psychic is weak against other Psychics. Surf/Hydro Pump take out Rhydon and Golem in one hit, unlike Blizzard, but they're not useful otherwise based on type. Their power runs off of STAB.

So let's lay out a few facts:

Psychic vs Tauros - 144-123 (41%-35%)
Surf vs Tauros - 152-130 (43%-37%)
Hydro Pump vs Tauros - 192-163 (54%-46%)

In terms of damage, Hydro Pump has a chance to 2HKO, while Psychic and Surf always 3HKO. However, Hydro Pump's damage range is below 50% part of the time, and that gives Hydro Pump approximately a 50% chance to KO with two hits. However, there's also accuracy, and with 80% accuracy, both hitting happens 64% of the time. 50% (chance to 2HKO) of 64% (chance to hit both times), is a 32% chance to 2HKO using Hydro Pump. I wouldn't.

As far as Psychic vs Surf goes, both 3HKO, but Psychic does lower Special, which would drop Tauros's Special from 238 to 158. With that, Psychic's damage is 216-184. So in the event that the first Psychic is nearly perfect damage, lowers Special and the following Psychic is also nearly perfect damage, Psychic can 2HKO. The chance of that which is about 0.18% chance of happening. Negligible.

So now Snorlax:

Psychic vs Snorlax - 151-128 (29%-24%)
Surf vs Snorlax - 159-135 (30%-26%)
Hydro Pump vs Snorlax - 200-170 (38%-(>33%))

This time around, Psychic and Surf both 4HKO (minding that Psychic has a very slim chance of not (probably around 0.0something%), and Hydro Pump is a 3HKO, with a very slim chance of not. This time with Hydro Pump, getting three hits is a 51.2% chance, which is basically a coin flip. It can work sometimes of course, but I wouldn't recommend using it due to inconsistency.

Surf vs Psychic again, are tied, but Psychic does have those Special falls. After one Special fall, Snorlax is at 152 and Psychic does 225-191. If the first Psychic is a Special fall, Psychic becomes a 3HKO (almost guaranteed), but if the second Psychic is, it can't unless Psychic does almost perfect damage all three times. However, in the event of a Critical, the Special fall is ignored, and it wouldn't have mattered if you used Psychic or Surf. However, since Psychic has a fair chance to 3HKO (about ~29% overall), while Surf doesn't, Psychic is the better option.

Now for Alakazam. While Psychic isn't what you want to use unless you really need Special falls, Surf vs Hydro Pump is debatable. So again, the damage:

Surf vs Alakazam - 99-85 (32%-27%)
Hydro Pump vs Alakazam - 125-106 (40%-34%)

Like Snorlax, Alakazam gets 3HKO'd by Hydro Pump and 4HKO'd by Surf. This brings Hydro Pump to a 51.2% chance of saving a turn. Again, it's inconsistent.

Overall, Psychic is the best option of the three, but Surf works on more Pokemon (Alakazam, Jynx, Hypno), while Psychic has an edge on Gengar. I wouldn't recommend Hydro Pump, unless you have damage planned out where a damaged Tauros or Snorlax will succumb to Hydro Pump and not Surf. While Surf is stronger than Psychic, the damage is minimal and the Special falls make up for it by far. Surf is better if you need the type, not the damage.

[WaterWizard]

Yeah, this confirms our doubts about Hyrdo Pump. 32% chance to 2HKO? No Thanks!

However, since the "standard" (Smogon?) Starmie is Blizz/Bolt/Wave, I think you should put up the stats for Blizzard (and maybe even Thunderbolt).

Most people want to know if Surf is worth losing a move slot (usually Thunder Wave) when Blizzard does such similar damage. Let us know if there is any turn difference in those two!

Thanks for the post!

[t3h Icy]

Well Water is super-effective against Fire, Rock and Ground. While the Rocks used (Golem and Rhydon) are also Ground which is Ice weak, Starmie can just use an Ice attack. Fires are rare in OU, and other Rocks are too, but Omastar, Moltres, Charizard, Aerodactyl and Kabutops all fall to Thunderbolt. If a player is using a pure Fire though, Surf could be handy, but they're very rare in OU.

So Surf is only useful for the extra damage vs Rock/Ground

Surf vs Rhydon - 770-656 (a lot)
Blizzard vs Rhydon - 323-275 (78%-67%)
Ice Beam vs Rhydon - 256-218 (62%-53%)

So Surf would be useful for getting a OHKO, but at this point in the metagame, Golem and Rhydon are uncommon enough that you don't need Surf. On top, a Critical with Blizzard will OHKO, while Surf getting one doesn't matter.

But what about just damaging in general?

Here are the main 16 Pokemon:

Alakazam Hydro Pump - 125-106 (40%-34%)
Alakazam Surf - 99-85 (32%-27%)
Alakazam Blizzard - 83-71 (27%-23%)
Alakazam Ice Beam - 66-56 (21%-18%)
Alakazam Psychic - 47-40 (15%-13%)
Alakazam Thunder - 83-71 (27%-23%)
Alakazam Thunderbolt - 66-56 (21%-18%)
Alakazam Hyper Beam - 168-143 (54%-46%)

Articuno Hydro Pump - 132-112 (34%-29%)
Articuno Surf - 105-89 (27%-23%)
Articuno Blizzard - 88-75 (23%->20%)
Articuno Ice Beam - 70-59 (18%-15%)
Articuno Psychic - 100-85 (26%-22%)
Articuno Thunder - 176-150 (46%-39%)
Articuno Thunderbolt - 140-119 (37%-31%)
Articuno Hyper Beam - 106-90 (28%-23%)

Chansey Hydro Pump - 149-127 (21%-18%)
Chansey Surf - 118-101 (17%-14%)
Chansey Blizzard - 99-84 (14%-12%)
Chansey Ice Beam - 79-67 (11%-10%)
Chansey Psychic - 112-95 (16%-14%)
Chansey Thunder - 99-84 (14%-12%)
Chansey Thunderbolt - 79-67 (11%-10%)
Chansey Hyper Beam - 291-247 (42%-35%)

Exeggutor Hydro Pump - 66-56 (17%-14%)
Exeggutor Surf - 52-44 (13%-11%)
Exeggutor Blizzard - 176-150 (45%-38%)
Exeggutor Ice Beam - 140-119 (36%-30%)
Exeggutor Psychic - 50-42 (13%-11%)
Exeggutor Thunder - 44-37 (11%-9%)
Exeggutor Thunderbolt - 35-29 (9%-7%)
Exeggutor Hyper Beam - 116-99 (30%-25%)

Gengar Hydro Pump - 128-109 (40%-34%)
Gengar Surf - 102-87 (32%-27%)
Gengar Blizzard - 85-73 (26%-23%)
Gengar Ice Beam - 68-58 (21%-18%)
Gengar Psychic - 194-165 (60%-51%)
Gengar Thunder - 85-73 (26%-23%)
Gengar Thunderbolt - 68-58 (21%-18%)
Gengar Hyper Beam - Hmmmm...

Golem Hydro Pump - OMG FLOOD
Golem Surf - 697-593 (rape)
Golem Blizzard - 292-249 (80%-69%)
Golem Ice Beam - 232-197 (64%-54%)
Golem Psychic - 165-140 (45%-39%)
Golem Thunderbolt - DUM DEE DUM
Golem Thunder - Shock dat rock
Golem Hyper Beam - 44-37 (12%-10%)

Jolteon Hydro Pump - 144-123 (43%-37%)
Jolteon Surf - 115-98 (35%-29%)
Jolteon Blizzard - 96-82 (29%->25%)
Jolteon Ice Beam - 76-65 (23%->20%)
Jolteon Psychic - 109-92 (>33%-28%)
Jolteon Thunder - 48-41 (14%-12%)
Jolteon Thunderbolt - 38-32 (11%-10%)
Jolteon Hyper Beam - 145-123 (44%-37%)

Jynx Hydro Pump - 159-135 (48%-41%)
Jynx Surf - 126-107 (38%-32%)
Jynx Blizzard - 53-45 (16%-14%)
Jynx Ice Beam - 42-35 (13%-11%)
Jynx Psychic - 60-51 (18%-15%)
Jynx Thunder - 106-90 (32%-27%)
Jynx Thunderbolt - 84-71 (25%-21%)
Jynx Hyper Beam - 188-159 (56%-48%)

Lapras Hydro Pump - 79-67 (17%-14%)
Lapras Surf - 60-51 (13%-11%)
Lapras Blizzard - 26-22 (6%-5%)
Lapras Ice Beam - 21-17 (5%-3% (guaranteed 28HKO))
Lapras Psychic - 120-102 (26%-22%)
Lapras Thunder - 212-180 (46%-39%)
Lapras Thunderbolt - 169-143 (37%-31%)
Lapras Hyper Beam - 123-104 (27%-22%)

Persian Hydro Pump - 200-170 (60%-51%)
Persian Surf - 159-135 (48%-41%)
Persian Blizzard - 133-113 (40%-34%)
Persian Ice Beam - 106-90 (32%-27%)
Persian Psychic - 151-128 (45%-38%)
Persian Thunder - 133-113 (40%-34%)
Persian Thunderbolt - 106-90 (32%-27%)
Persian Hyper Beam - 145-123 (44%-37%)

Rhydon Hydro Pump - Do I need to say it?
Rhydon Surf - A really big number.
Rhydon Blizzard - 323-275 (78%-67%)
Rhydon Ice Beam - 256-218 (62%-53%)
Rhydon Psychic - 182-155 (44%-38%)
Rhydon Thunder - The chance to miss is risky.
Rhydon Thunderbolt - Can't let you do that Starmie.
Rhydon Hyper Beam - 47-40 (11%-10%)

Slowbro Hydro Pump - 88-75 (22%-19%)
Slowbro Surf - 70-60 (18%-15%)
Slowbro Blizzard - 59-50 (15%-13%)
Slowbro Ice Beam - 47-40 (12%-10%)
Slowbro Psychic - 66-57 (17%-15%)
Slowbro Thunder - 236-201 (60%-51%)
Slowbro Thunderbolt - 188-160 (48%-41%)
Slowbro Hyper Beam - 100-85 (25%-22%)

Snorlax Hydro Pump - 200-170 (38%->33%)
Snorlax Surf - 159-135 (30%-26%)
Snorlax Blizzard - 133-113 (25%-22%)
Snorlax Ice Beam - 106-90 (20%-17%)
Snorlax Psychic - 151-128 (29%-24%)
Snorlax Thunder - 133-113 (25%-22%)
Snorlax Thunderbolt - 106-90 (20%-17%)
Snorlax Hyper Beam - 139-118 (27%-23%)

Starmie Hydro Pump - 75-64 (23%->20%)
Starmie Surf - 59-50 (18%-15%)
Starmie Blizzard - 50-42 (15%-13%)
Starmie Ice Beam - 40-34 (12%-11%)
Starmie Psychic - 56-48 (17%-15%)
Starmie Thunder - 205-174 (63%-54%)
Starmie Thunderbolt - 159-135 (49%-42%)
Starmie Hyper Beam - 118-100 (37%-31%)

Tauros Hydro Pump - 192-163 (54%-46%)
Tauros Surf - 152-130 (43%-37%)
Tauros Blizzard - 128-109 (36%-31%)
Tauros Ice Beam - 101-86 (29%-24%)
Tauros Psychic - 144-123 (41%-35%)
Tauros Thunder - 128-109 (36%-31%)
Tauros Thunderbolt - 101-86 (29%-24%)
Tauros Hyper Beam - 110-94 (31%-27%)

Zapdos Hydro Pump - 132-112 (34%-29%)
Zapdos Surf - 105-89 (27%-23%)
Zapdos Blizzard - 176-150 (46%-39%)
Zapdos Ice Beam - 140-119 (37%-31%)
Zapdos Psychic - 100-85 (26%-22%)
Zapdos Thunder - 88-75 (23%->20%)
Zapdos Thunderbolt - 70-59 (18%-15%)
Zapdos Hyper Beam - 118-100 (31%-26%)

I'm not writing anymore (2 hours), so you can be the judge about what to use. =P

[WaterWizard]

I wanted to see the numbers for Mr. Mime and Beedrill...

[Nitro]

So just to touch on Starmie's Hydro Pump vs Tauros:

It's complicated since Tauros has around a 50% chance to survive 2 hpumps or 1 ch hpump, but basically here's the basics:

Rounding Starmie's ch rate to 22.5%, then factoring in accuracy, Starmie has an 18% shot to ch with Hydro Pump on any given turn. The fact that Hydro Pump only does enough damage to kill Tauros 50% of the time, this means Starmie Hydro Pump has a 9% chance to OHKO Tauros.

Since the 20% accuracy is cancelled out by the 22.5% ch rate, I can assume Hydro Pump in general will 2HKO a little over 50% of the time.

Add this to the 9% possibility of OHKOing, and Starmie has around a 60% shot to AT LEAST 2HKO Tauros with Hydro Pump.

I'm not sure about the odds for 3HKO, but they should make up a decent chunk of the remaining 40%. An annoying aspect of Hydro Pump is that it gives you a small possibility of, well, never KOing Starmie.

Surf on the other hand is easy. Surf has a 0% shot to OHKO, and it needs just one critical hit to 2HKO. The odds of Starmie not critical hitting in 2 straight turns = .775 x .775 = 60%. So flipping that number, Starmie surf has a 40% chance to 2HKO Tauros. And of course, a 100% chance of at least 3HKOing which is nice.

In summary:

Hpump:

OHKO - 9%
2HKO - ~50%
3HKO -
4HKO -
5HKO - forget it you died

Surf:

OHKO - 0%
2HKO - 40%
3HKO - 60%

If someone wants to calc out all the percentages for Hpumps later KOing scenarios, go for it. I just didn't feel like dealing with miss/miss/chKO, miss/reg/regsurvive, etc cause its a pain and you get the idea. Hpump is basically better here, playing by the odds, as I'd assume the odds of 4HKO are very slim (at the very least, slimmer than the 20% gap between the 2HKO rates) and the odds for KOing within the first 3 hits are better than Surf.

[t3h Icy]

That's actually a pretty nice 2HKO rate, but I'd probably stick to Surf's consistency, and enjoy a 2HKO if it happens. A single CH in the first two Surfs is fairly likely (40% almost exactly as you said), and in the case that Tauros gets lucky against you, at least you would have done some damage, whereas Hydro Pump may have missed.

I think overall, it is still in Surf's favor, but the difference is so small, that playstyle is the more important factor in deciding which move to use. Personally over Surf, I'd use Psychic. ^_^

[Nitro]

Yea I'd say psychic is probably the best option against Tauros overall. The one thing Hydro Pump would still have is that 9% chance to OHKO, which psychic can't have. However, with the chance of a special down on the first psychic, Psychic should have a decently comparable 2HKO rate with Hydro Pump.

[WaterWizard]

The nice thing about Surf is you can use it on Tauros and still hit the Alakazam switch-in hard.

[pocket]

I personally don't like Psychic since Starmie would not appreciate being walled by Alakazam. With it's decent chance at a critical hit, Surf / Hydro Pump gives Starmie the very probable chance of taking out Alakazam. If the Zam is paralyzed and switches into Surf / Hydro Pump, the chance of at least one of the two of Starmie's moves to CH before Zam can retaliate is 44% and 35%, respectively. These are good chances for dealing an average of 88% to Zam with Surf or a definite KO with HPump. That means a paralyzed Zam with 84% of health or less has a considerable chance of being screwed if it switches in.

Surf vs. Hydro Pump is mainly preference. Hydro Pump is inaccurate, but its power compensates for the accuracy. The average damage output of both Surf and Hydro Pump is virtually equal.

Even against Tauros, when considering ch rate, Starmie's HPump only has 32% chance of 2HKO, but a 9% chance to OHKO, as nitro cleverly pointed out. This 41% chance of doing a 2HKO or more roughly matches with the 44% chance of a 2HKO with Surf imo (extra 4% chance from scoring 2 chs).

Also a 35% chance to score a CH and 2HKO a full-health Snorlax with Hydro Pump is also significant imo. However a slightly weakened Snorlax (~81%) has a higher chance (44%) of a critical hit 2HKO with Surf. So, again, it is preference.

Hyper Beam is also a cool option, especially against Zam and Blissey, the two special walls. However, relying on a Blizzard to chip their health < 50% would be very hard to accomplish, although it is probable. Against Zam there is Surf and Hydro Pump anyways. If it wasn't for Chansey, there is no reason to use Hyper Beam Starmie. In that case, I'd rather explode Gengar / Eggy / Lax on Chansey.

[t3h Icy]

See the thing is, people try to make Starmie do everything. Pick a few plans and balance the rest of your team accordingly. =)

[Crystal_]

Starmie should not be trying to sweep Zam. With Surf it takes abaut 3 consecutive Zam FPs, or 2 FPs + 1CH or 2 CH + 1FP or something like that. With HP you may need one of these things less but you will have to worry abaut the 80% accuracy and especially the 8 PP. And Zam's superior speed makes this even more difficult.

Alakazam is superior 1 vs 1 against Star, but anyway this superiority is only viable in a 1 recoverer vs 1 recoverer late-game situation being these recoverers Zam and Star.
If you use Surf in Star you will nearly always lose against Zam in that situation. If you have Psychic instead, you will still be in disadvantage due to the spc and spe, but you will have more chances to success depending in both psychics (spc falls and maybe CHs).
And Psychic is somewhat more useful against Tauros, LAx and friends as well.
Psychic main disadvantage is obv the 16 PPs. There is also Golem, but your only worry here is explosion (especially a guaranteed-OHKO ranged boom [290-340 damage; abaut 40% chance of OHKO]), and this can happen having Surf or not.

Imo Starmie should be like that:
- Psychic
- T-B
- Recover
- TW / IB / Blizzard

IB is mainly for the freeze because in a Eggy vs Star situation pretty much everything will depend in what Eggy has (MD or not) and what wants to do (explode, switch, stun, attack).

HB is usable but only because of Stramie high CH rate. Not good imo tho.

If the Zam is paralyzed and switches into Surf / Hydro Pump, the chance of at least one of the two of Starmie's moves to CH before Zam can retaliate is 44% and 35%, respectively. These are good chances for dealing an average of 88% to Zam with Surf or a definite KO with HPump

That situation will rarely happen and if it happens there is also Chansey.

[Nitro]

eh, surf/hpump Starmie has a pretty decent 1v1 with Zam. Zam can't really kill Starmie quickly so there's time for Starmie to go for the hax. Obviously Chansey needs to be gone at this point in order to force this matchup, but I've seen Starmie ch down Alakazam plenty of times. Any ch surf/hpump is going to put Zam instantly into must-recover health which could give you a free switch to a physical if reflect isn't up (or at least let you reset starmie's special to come right back in).

[Crystal_]

The Physical switch-in in a Zam Recover is viable (tho you should hope it gets FP) but very situational. And Zam is likely to have a reflect up if he is expecting that; unless it has been forced to switch-in in Starmie.
Overall I prefer Psychic.

[Isa]

Bump because even if the discussion is dated, the damage calculations in post 3 are incredibly useful. I only just now saw them.

[Dre]

I've never really seen starmie as a sweeper to be honest. It just needs too many pokemon down to do it's thang. I've always thought of it more as a defensive pokemon. More of a niche sleep absorber and a chansey lure, and wrap/water counter.

[Isa]

I agree with you, but there's always a possibility to get Starmie in a sweeping position due to the amazing coverage. Chansey is the main issue, of course, but everything else can be overcome with a bit of RNG luck and paralysis preparation.

And mostly, I bumped this for the damage calcs either way.

[magic9mushroom]

I generally like Blizzard and Psychic on Starmie, because I figure that over half the time Starmie's going to be hitting Chansey anyway, and those are the ones Chansey actually gives a damn about because of their nasty secondaries. Haven't tried Hyper Beam, mostly because I hate not having T-wave, but that should work okay as well.

[Isa]

I used to run TWave/Blizzard/Psychic/Recover as a lead Starmie. It paralyzed Jynx and hit the other sleepers hard. Zam? Go Eggy.

[magic9mushroom]

Jul 16, 2013 2:32:51 GMT -8 Isa said:

I used to run TWave/Blizzard/Psychic/Recover as a lead Starmie. It paralyzed Jynx and hit the other sleepers hard. Zam? Go Eggy.

I still do.

[Dre]

I don't like lead sets to be honest, because they become sub-optimal after a few turns (except stosszam, which is just a zam set that happens to be good in the lead position).

The thing about blizz psychic starmie is that whilst it's technically better for chansey, if you know chansey is coming in you might as well just switch out.

If I were to use starmie, I'd probably use water STAB. It's likely to be optimal against 3-4 pokemon on the opposing team (rock, zam, jynx, lax and tauros) whilst still hurting gengar. That's more than any of its other moves. Blizz is only optimal against grasses or nite (1-2 slots). Tbolt is optimal against waters, but most people won't run two waters. Psychic is optimal against gengar and I guess bel, and against chansey it is inferior to switching out.

I also think it's important to prioritise what is harder to switch into. Water over blizzard loses eggy, but eggy isn't too hard to switch into if you don't fear explosion. Enemy starmies are easy to switch into, but the other waters not so much. Psychic covers gar, who is easy to switch into, but bel isn't. Water covers grounds and physicals, who are probably the hardest pokemon to switch into.

[jorgen]

One thing to keep in mind is that Blizz forces Egg to consider Exploding sooner. If you've got Surf/Tbolt coverage, he has all day to consider using Explosion, which makes it much more difficult to predict when he pulls the trigger and therefore makes it more likely he trades with exactly what he wants.

I think Boltbeam, while basic, works really well. Blizz is not all that strong, but still is good enough for almost-STAB damage against Normals while getting coverage against Egg (and, for Dre's benefit, Victreebel/Dnite). Tbolt is necessary so you can actually counter Slowbro like you're supposed to. Twave is pretty necessary since you need to do something when you can't sweep (which is often), thereby leaving you with only those two slots for coverage. Heck, even if you lead, Twave still wrecks Gengar.

[Dre]

See I prefer my teams to be designed that they don't mind too much if eggy booms, and/or benefit from said boom (eg. rhydon). I prefer that to relying on having to predict the boom, which will rarely happen in high level play.

At the end of the day blizzard is a one-pokemon move, and you're likely to be running other ice anyway. I'm happy to run from eggy in exchange for hitting 3-4 pokemon hard.

Boltbeam is solid because it doesn't need to run from anything straight away except zam and chansey, but at the same time it's kind of dull. Not because it's basic, but because I don't see what it achieves. It doesn't give MU advantages on anything, it doesn't really lure anything that other starmie sets don't. I guess it's general utility really, it annoys eggy and waters.

[lilith]

i don't really like bolt beam either, coz sacrificing the matchup against normals puts a lot less pressure on the opponent to keep chansey alive

[magic9mushroom]

Jul 16, 2013 19:18:50 GMT -8 Dre said:

See I prefer my teams to be designed that they don't mind too much if eggy booms, and/or benefit from said boom (eg. rhydon). I prefer that to relying on having to predict the boom, which will rarely happen in high level play.

Using Rhydon to absorb Egg's boom is predicting the boom. :S

[Isa]

I am fairly sure Dre meant that if Eggy booms, Rhydon gets a much more clear-cut path to sweeping and damage-dealing, as nothing walls Rhydon as good as Exeggutor. Unparalyzed Starmie can switch in safely still, but not comfortably for too long. Having Exeggutor boom is the biggest aid you can get as a Rhydon user, more or less (either that or making Eggy take a lot of chip damage + paralysis so that you can kill it with EQ+RSlide).

[Dre]

Well eggy booming means rhydon can stop bslamming/rsliding and start quaking. I sometimes still like to bslam to paralyse starmie though.

[magic9mushroom]

I did all the 2HKO numbers for Starmie vs. Tauros because somebody asked. Honestly I forget whether these have been posted (or if they had been posted, but didn't consider everything), but I'm pretty sure the Blizzard one is new.

Blizzard 2HKO vs. Tauros - 28.44%
Surf 2HKO vs. Tauros - 39.27%
Psychic 2HKO vs. Tauros - 40.22%
Hydro Pump 2HKO-or-better vs. Tauros - 49.06% (6.37% OHKO)

SPOILER: Click to show

Blizzard: 229/256 * 26/256 (first one hits and freezes) + 229/256 * 230/256 * 57/256 * 229/256 * 57/256 (both hit, first one crits and doesn't freeze, second one crits) + 229/256 * 230/256 * 57/256 * 229/256 * 199/256 * 537/1521 (both hit, first one crits and doesn't freeze, second one doesn't crit, and they 2HKO) + 229/256 * 230/256 * 57/256 * 229/256 * 199/256 * 984/1521 * 26/256 (both hit, first one crits and doesn't freeze, second one doesn't crit, doesn't 2HKO and freezes) + 229/256 * 230/256 * 199/256 * 229/256 * 57/256 * 537/1521 (both hit, first one doesn't crit or freeze, second one crits, and they 2HKO) + 229/256 * 230/256 * 199/256 * 229/256 * 57/256 * 984/1521 * 26/256 (both hit, first one doesn't crit or freeze, second one crits, doesn't 2HKO and freezes) + 229/256 * 230/256 * 199/256 * 229/256 * 199/256 * 26/256 (both hit, neither crits, first one doesn't freeze but second one does) + 27/256 * 229/256 * 26/256 (first one misses, second one hits and freezes)

Surf: 255/256 * 57/256 * 255/256 (both hit, first one crits) + 255/256 * 199/256 * 255/256 * 57/256 (both hit, first one doesn't crit but second one does)

Psychic: 255/256 * 57/256 * 255/256 (both hit, first one crits) + 255/256 * 199/256 * 255/256 * 57/256 (both hit, first one doesn't crit but second one does) + 255/256 * 199/256 * 85/256 * 255/256 * 199/256 * 73/1521 (both hit, neither crit, first one is a special fall and they 2HKO)

Hydro Pump: 204/256 * 57/256 * 14/39 (first one hits, crits, and OHKOs) + 204/256 * 57/256 * 25/39 * 204/256 (first one hits, crits and doesn't OHKO, second one hits) + 204/256 * 199/256 * 204/256 * 57/256 (first one hits and doesn't crit, second one hits and crits) + 204/256 * 199/256 * 204/256 * 199/256 * 846/1521 (both hit, neither crits, and they 2HKO) + 52/256 * 204/256 * 57/256 * 14/39 (first one misses, second one hits, crits, and OHKOs)