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Post by t3h Icy on May 8, 2011 7:37:43 GMT -8
Very cool stuff. How are you doing this though? Are you writing a program to simulate all possibilities? I've usually just brute forced my way to percentages.
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Post by hipmonlee on May 8, 2011 13:40:33 GMT -8
I wrote a programme to do 10 million simulations of it.
It's easier than the maths..
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Post by t3h Icy on May 8, 2011 13:43:34 GMT -8
Does is actually go through every possibility though or just take a really large sample?
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Post by muhpim on May 8, 2011 14:25:03 GMT -8
10 million seems enough...
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Post by hipmonlee on May 8, 2011 16:47:24 GMT -8
Just a big sample
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Post by YellowRBY on Aug 18, 2012 4:12:25 GMT -8
Next up, you probably dont care about this, but I am going to modify it to calc wrappers vs OUs Cloyster Dragonite and Victribell!! Kingler/Tentacruel too
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Dre
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Post by Dre on Aug 19, 2012 3:04:50 GMT -8
He wrote that a year ago so I'd be surprised if he's still working on it.
There's also no competitive reason to use tentacruel in OU as it's outclassed by other pokemon in pretty much any role it can play. 100 base speed wrap isn't that good seeing as it's still outsped by everything fast, and doesn't outspeed anything that slower wrappers don't (except other wrappers I guess).
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Post by YellowRBY on Aug 19, 2012 4:02:12 GMT -8
Yup
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Post by Consumptus on Sept 20, 2012 18:45:56 GMT -8
Heh, nice bump.
These matchups are assuming fresh pokemon, and assuming a double switch (no pokemon gets first strike).
As such, it's probably of limited use in a real battle.
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Post by Agent Syrup on Dec 24, 2012 7:45:42 GMT -8
I would like to see how some BL Pokemon would do in the matchups. (especially Victreebel!)
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Isa
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Post by Isa on Dec 24, 2012 9:33:01 GMT -8
Victreebel gets pretty dominated due to an unfortunate typing. (assuming no Wrap and that sleep has been used, though)
He beats Golem/Rhydon easily as well as Cloyster (though it hurts) and Slowbro. I don't know how much damage Razor Leaf deals vs. Lapras, but it should be enough for a 2HKO. Chansey can get beaten with some luck (I don't think *2 HBeam KOs, though). Persian deals a lot of damage with Slash, but Vic should be able to KO it with two Razor Leafs, I think, before dying.
Gengar walls him all day. Jynx, Articuno, Zapdos and Alakazam outspeed and 2HKO with STAB attacks. Exeggutor doesn't outspeed but kills Vic before it dies. Pin Missile from Jolteon = Death.
Starmie needs to connect with 2 Blizzards and avoid being slightly unlucky with rolls (48-56% damage) to beat Victreebel. Tauros and Victreebel is pretty much even, I'd say (someone do the math?). My guess is that Vic has a decent shot versus Snorlax.
I think that's everyone in OU, plus Cloyster.
So, quite a lot of positive matchups, but he takes so much pain from common moves and is weak to paralysis, making him a mediocre option most of the times, and he's walled by Gengar. In straight 1v1's, he's good no doubt, but Pokémon is more than just 1v1's.
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Dre
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Post by Dre on Dec 24, 2012 16:20:35 GMT -8
Wrap is standard so wrap should always be assumed. Plus the fact that people are probably only going to use bell if wrap is legal.
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Post by t3h Icy on Dec 24, 2012 16:38:20 GMT -8
Victreebel's pretty good without it as well due to the movepool diversity of powders, Razor Leaf, Swords Dance, and nice Normal moves. Victreebel's a bit high risk, medium reward though and is difficult to play effectively.
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Isa
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Post by Isa on Dec 24, 2012 16:49:56 GMT -8
Wrap is standard so wrap should always be assumed. Not on here, and you know it.
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Dre
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Post by Dre on Dec 25, 2012 6:38:08 GMT -8
Yeah but the chart says RBY OU, which is wrap legal. Non-wrap is a side-meta, like UU or monotype. It doesn't matter if it's the most popular meta here, it's still a side-meta.
Victrebell isn't very good without wrap because it's outclassed. As a statuser, it is outclassed by eggy. As a sweeper it is outclassed by kingler. It can combine the two, but it isn't very effective because you need both body slam and hyper beam in most situations.
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Isa
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Post by Isa on Dec 25, 2012 7:42:45 GMT -8
Prior to PO, which is when this was made, we had very little contact with other RBY players. Wrap being banned was standard on here, everyone knew it. It was effectively the standard for everyone since we almost WERE everyone. People on here still play without Wrap when possible, so it makes more sense to write about a Wrap-less meta on here.
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Post by Crystal_ on Dec 25, 2012 13:01:56 GMT -8
Not at all. SE hit on Starmie/Slowbro/Lapras/Cloyster + Stun Spore + Sleep Powder unpredictablity. I'd put Victreebel over Kingler even with wrap banned.
But yeah it feels weird the way you want to differenciate between wrap meta and non-wrap meta. Tourns here are played with these moves banned and outside tournaments/random matches are played with wrap moves allowed. So if someone comes to this forum for the first time and reads this thread, what should he/she expect to read? What would he/she WANT TO read? Something that limits him to the non-rby2k10 metagame, or something that limits him to the rby2k10 metagame? What was the last official OU match/tourn played behind rby2k10 rules? As far as I know, the anniversary tournament. Thats around half a year ago. When was the last wrap-allowed match played? Probably 3-4 matches like this are being played on PO right now. Probably around 50-100 every day. Even if players that hate wrap moves face off, still, wrap moves aren't officially banned unless they talk previously about it. So as it stands, non-wrap rby is just the gimmick tier of wrap rby. Even in NBS, where wrap isn't bugged, the official meta is rby with wrap, because there is nothing that prevents anyone from using wrap/clamp/fs/bind. Like, lets say, if you use a Uber, you are placed in Ubers, but if you use wrap you are placed in the same OU tier someone that doesn't use it/hates it is.
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Dre
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Post by Dre on Dec 25, 2012 18:33:07 GMT -8
Isa- I'm not saying you guys can't write an MU chart for non-wrap, I'm saying it's misleading to call it RBY OU, because it isn't standard RBY OU.
The fact everyone plays it here doesn't matter. If this was a UU community, it would still be wrong to call it standard RBY.
Also, I retract my comments about bell being inferior to kingler without wrap. I forgot about how good rleaf is unboosted. Also, bell can come in on slowbro, and threaten to status whatever switches in, which is probably his biggest draw in non-wrap.
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Post by magic9mushroom on Feb 9, 2013 17:04:26 GMT -8
Starmie needs to connect with 2 Blizzards and avoid being slightly unlucky with rolls (48-56% damage) to beat Victreebel. Unless it has Psychic, of course, in which case Victreebel's chances of winning are minimal. (Still non-zero, though. If Starmie doesn't crit, Victreebel uses Stun Spore, and Starmie then FPs, Victreebel wins.)
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Post by magic9mushroom on Sept 1, 2014 1:23:22 GMT -8
Feel free to put this in a spreadsheet if you want. Attribute it, though. Commentary is also welcome, particularly if you feel my colours aren't consistent.
Cyan matchups are assured wins. Green matchups are likely wins, or assured wins that are turned on their head by paralysis. Yellow matchups are a tossup. Orange matchups are likely losses, or assured losses that are turned on their head by paralysis. Red matchups are assured losses.
Alakazam
Alakazam vs. Alakazam: SToss Zam beats Reflect Zam. Counter Zam beats SToss Zam. Reflect Zam stalemates Counter Zam. Kinesis Zam stalemates everything. Prior para doesn't matter.
Alakazam vs. Articuno: Zam usually wins thanks to Twave/Recover but Blizzard is a 3HKO and chance of getting frozen is significant.
Alakazam vs. Chansey: Zam usually wins with special falls/crits/fullpara but takes a risk of freeze. Light Screen Chansey can safely freeze Zam though. Paralysed Zam autowins.
Alakazam vs. Cloyster: Zam wins easily if unparalysed, but Cloyster can Explode for a tie if Zam doesn't Reflect. If Zam is paralysed and Cloyster isn't, it usually loses to Clamp + Hyper Beam.
Alakazam vs. Dragonite: Alakazam can easily para Dragonite, but Dragonite will often win anyway. Reflect Zam wins vs. paralysed Dragonite if it can get Reflect up. Dragonite trivially defeats paralysed Zam.
Alakazam vs. Exeggutor: Zam wins, but Exeggutor can Explode on non-Reflect Zam. Rest Egg vs. Zam is a stalemate.
Alakazam vs. Gengar: Zam trivially wins. Explosion isn't guaranteed a KO even without Reflect, and Gengar stands a good chance of being crit-OHKOed before it even gets the chance.
Alakazam vs. Golem: Zam wins if unparalysed but Golem can Explode on non-Reflect Zam. Paralysed Zam loses.
Alakazam vs. Jolteon: Alakazam usually wins, as Thunderbolt doesn't 3HKO. Jolteon has a decent chance of haxing Zam to death though, particularly if Zam's already paralysed.
Alakazam vs. Jynx: Jynx has a fairly high chance of freezing Zam. Paralysed Zam vs. paralysed Jynx usually goes to Zam, but paralysed Zam vs. unparalysed Jynx is more dicey. Rest Jynx can be annoying for Zam, but it's not a hard wall as it's 3HKOed after two Special falls.
Alakazam vs. Lapras: Alakazam usually wins, but it takes the chance of freeze if unparalysed and of hax if paralysed.
Alakazam vs. Persian: Alakazam usually 2HKOs with Psychic. Persian beats paralysed Zam.
Alakazam vs. Rhydon: About 75/25 in Zam's favour if it doesn't Reflect, autowin if it does. Paralysed Zam loses though.
Alakazam vs. Slowbro: Zam is hardwalled and set up on. Unparalysed SToss Zam vs. non-Twave Slowbro can go for the double FP, but it's still a tossup whether it'll actually manage it before running out of Seismic Toss PP. Kinesis Zam vs. Psychic Slowbro is a stalemate.
Alakazam vs. Snorlax: Reflect Zam beats most Laxen; even Amnesia variants will typically succumb to crits before they can get their Special high enough. Otherwise Alakazam really struggles vs. standard Lax, and it definitely loses if it's pre-paralysed.
Alakazam vs. Starmie: Zam will usually win vs. non-Psychic, non-Light-Screen Starmie, though Starmie has some chance of freezing it if Zam's unparalysed. Psychic Starmie and non-Ice Light Screen Starmie will usually stalemate Zam, although Zam sometimes wins. Light Screen/Ice Beam Starmie wins vs. unparalysed Zam but is rare. Surf, Hydro Pump and HAIPA BIIMU are much touted for this matchup but won't allow Starmie to straight-up beat Alakazam unless either Zam plays recklessly or you get very lucky (as in, significantly MORE lucky than the chance to freeze it with Blizzard).
Alakazam vs. Tauros: It's about 60/40 in Tauros' favour if they're both unparalysed, and if one's paralysed the other wins. Reflect doesn't help a lot.
Alakazam vs. Victreebel: Zam wins if it's unparalysed or Victreebel is paralysed, and it knows Victreebel's set (it wants to Thunder Wave vs. Wrap Bel, but Psychic vs. Swords Dance Bel; it's still got a reasonable chance of victory if it gets it wrong, though, via crits or fullpara respectively. Reflect mostly removes the need to predict, too). Unparalysed Victreebel beats paralysed Zam.
Alakazam vs. Zapdos: Zam usually wins if it can get Reflect up, but Drill Peck is a 3HKO and Zapdos has a good crit rate and reasonable resilience against Psychic so it's likely to win against non-Reflect Zam and can sometimes beat even Reflect Zam.
Articuno
Articuno vs. Alakazam: See above.
Articuno vs. Articuno: Speedtie/crits decide it. Rest doesn't matter much since Blizzard 3HKOs.
Articuno vs. Chansey: Articuno usually loses to standard Thunderbolt/Thunder Wave Chansey, Seismic Toss/Thunder Wave/Reflect Chansey, or Thunderbolt/Light Screen Chansey. Other Chansey sets tend to get frozen or critted to death (blizz/blizz/blizz/HBeam is a 4HKO, and there's also Sky Attack to worry about).
Articuno vs. Cloyster: Cloyster hard-walls Articuno, but Reflect/Rest Articuno can often PP-stall it into Exploding since Cloyster can't do much back either unless Articuno's paralysed and doesn't have a lot of PP on its moves.
Articuno vs. Dragonite: Articuno outspeeds and OHKOs Dragonite. Even if it's paralysed, Articuno still has a good chance of getting off that fatal Blizzard or Ice Beam.
Articuno vs. Exeggutor: Articuno makes Exeggutor cry. It still has a chance to 2HKO even if it's paralysed AND Exeggutor gets a special fall on the first Psychic.
Articuno vs. Gengar: Gengar outspeeds Articuno and 3HKOs it first. Articuno wins if Gengar's paralysed, though.
Articuno vs. Golem: Blizzard OHKOs, Rock Slide is less likely to OHKO than not even if Arty's paralysed. Still does retarded amounts of damage, though.
Articuno vs. Jolteon: Tbolt 2HKOs, Blizzard doesn't. Jolt's also faster.
Articuno vs. Jynx: Articuno needs Hyper Beam, and even then it's a tossup. Beats paralysed Jynx fairly convincingly, though, even if it's reduced to using Blizzard, DE, or Sky Attack. I am considering changing this to yellow if Hyper Beam is considered standard on Articuno.
Articuno vs. Lapras: Articuno's at best going to 5HKO (Sky Attack + Hyper Beam), while Lapras 4HKOs with Blizzard and potentially 3HKOs with Thunderbolt. Even if Arty Rests, Lapras can break it relatively easily.
Articuno vs. Persian: Articuno 2HKOs, Persian's got about a 50% chance of a 3HKO.
Articuno vs. Rhydon: Both have guaranteed OHKOs. Articuno's faster, but if it's paralysed Rhydon wins.
Articuno vs. Slowbro: Slowbro needs 4 active turns to defeat Articuno (Amnesia, Amnesia, STAB, STAB), and will Thunder Wave (if it has it) to outspeed Articuno. Taking 1 unparalysed and 3 paralysed Blizzards gives it a 26% chance of being frozen. In addition, if Arty crits the second or third Blizzard, it can follow up with Hyper Beam to KO Slowbro; avoiding this with Rest gives Articuno a fifth chance to freeze Slowbro.
Articuno vs. Snorlax: Non-Reflect Articuno vs. Hyper Beam Snorlax, by my numbers, is slightly in Articuno's favour unless it's pre-paralysed. Reflect Articuno vs. physical Snorlax is an obvious curbstomp. Amnesia's not all that helpful (unless it's the mythical Thunderbolt AmnesiaLax) since Articuno's crit rate is decent and Lax will have to take a lot of Blizzards (with their associated freeze chances) before it can actually get rid of Articuno (5 active turns, plus whatever it spent Resting).
Articuno vs. Starmie: Tbolt Starmie beats it very comfortably, but non-Tbolt sets (Tbolt is under 50% usage on Starmie for the last three months on PO) take a decent chance of being frozen, particularly by Agility Articuno.
Articuno vs. Tauros: Articuno almost always wins; it 2HKOs, while Tauros struggles to 3HKO.
Articuno vs. Victreebel: Articuno outspeeds and 2HKOs Victreebel, while Victreebel's arsenal is almost useless thanks to Articuno resisting Razor Leaf and taking non-STAB physical moves very well.
Articuno vs. Zapdos: Both 2HKO reliably with their special STABs. If Articuno's unparalysed and Zapdos is paralysed, it wins; else Zapdos wins.
Chansey
Chansey vs. Alakazam: See above.
Chansey vs. Articuno: See above.
Chansey vs. Chansey: Chansey with Ice Beam beat those without an Ice move, and have an advantage vs. those with Blizzard. A Blizzard Chansey has a 53% chance of freezing an opposing non-Ice Chansey, otherwise it's a stalemate. Paralysed Chansey can treat the opposing Chansey as not having an Ice move. If both are paralysed, Seismic Toss/Reflect Chansey can stall opposing Chansey out of Softboiled and KO them that way.
Chansey vs. Cloyster: Cloyster needs to hit about 4 Clamp sequences to be able to finish Chansey with Hyper Beam; this is rather unlikely (though not impossible). Chansey needs Thunderbolt or Seismic Toss (as well as preferably having Thunder Wave) to be able to damage Cloyster, though, and Cloyster can Explode for the tie relatively easily.
Chansey vs. Dragonite: Dragonite is more likely than not to Wrap Chansey into Hyper Beam range and KO it without taking a single hit; it can potentially even take that hit and still win, thanks to Agility negating Thunder Wave's speed drop and the rarity of Blizzard on Chansey. However, it's far from guaranteed.
Chansey vs. Exeggutor: Exeggutor has a very hard time beating Chansey with its standard sets, but it outspeeds and can usually Explode for the tie somewhat safely.
Chansey vs. Gengar: Gengar's screwed; vs. Thunder Wave Chansey it can't even guarantee that it takes Chansey down with Explosion.
Chansey vs. Golem: Chansey with Reflect or Ice Beam (ie, all of them) beat Golem if unparalysed. If Chansey's paralysed, Golem has a 23% chance to 2HKO Ice Beam Chansey first plus the chance of fullpara. Explosion ensures the trade unless Chansey freezes or crits Golem first, or uses Reflect.
Chansey vs. Jolteon: Jolteon's only hope is to Thunder Wave Chansey and then get double hax on Double Kick (double crit, or crit + fullpara, or two fullparas). Unfortunately for Chansey, though, Jolteon has a 25.4% crit rate and is only 5HKOed by Ice Beam, so it's got a pretty reasonable chance to pull it off before succumbing.
Chansey vs. Jynx: Chansey's more likely than not to kill Jynx with Thunderbolt before getting frozen, but if Jynx Mimics Softboiled or Rests, Chansey has no hope. Paralysed Chansey autowins vs. Jynx that can't recover HP, but still usually succumbs to those that do, as Psychic will batter down its Special to the point where Blizzard can KO.
Chansey vs. Lapras: Lapras usually loses to the standard Thunderbolt Chansey, but sets with Seismic Toss instead can't touch Rest Lapras and stand a good chance of getting frozen if unparalysed vs. even non-Rest Lapras. Sets without either move are doomed.
Chansey vs. Persian: "Standard" (Slash/Hyper Beam/BubbleBeam/Thunderbolt) Persian's problem is that Slash and Hyper Beam only deal around 50% to Chansey, Slash is already a crit so can't get crit hax, and Slash has no secondary effect. As such, it loses more often than not to Thunder Wave + Softboiled Chansey (its optimal strategy is to spam Hyper Beams and hope one of them crits), and usually loses to Counter Chansey. Screech Persian, however, wins easily against any Chansey without both Reflect and Thunder Wave and has a better-than-even chance against even those. How common "should" Screech Persian be? If the answer's "most Persian" or "around half of Persian", then I'll make this orange.
Chansey vs. Rhydon: Chansey has either Ice Beam or the combination of Seismic Toss and Reflect. It wins, therefore, if it's unparalysed, but usually loses if paralysed (Rhydon has a guaranteed 2HKO with Earthquake).
Chansey vs. Slowbro: Slowbro is going to have to Rest before it can kill Thunderbolt Chansey in the fresh matchup, because Chansey can kill it first otherwise. As such, Chansey has about a 50% chance of getting the crit and thus killing Slowbro. If Chansey's pre-paralysed its chances drop dramatically (to about 35%) because it then can't usually force that Rest, and likewise if it goes for the freeze with Ice Beam instead (Seismic Toss autoloses to Twave Slowbro or if Chansey's already paralysed and is a coinflip vs. non-Twave Slowbro).
Chansey vs. Snorlax: Chansey can't do much to Snorlax, but if Chansey's running Reflect Snorlax can't do much back either and will usually either lose the freeze war (if AmnesiaLax) or be forced to Selfdestruct. EQ/Hyper Beam Lax (the most common Lax set) can beat Counter Chansey relatively easily, also, but almost any other Lax set will have serious trouble beating it before getting frozen, killed or forced to Selfdestruct.
Chansey vs. Starmie: Chansey wins easily if it has Thunderbolt. If it doesn't, the freeze war is still in its favour as Starmie rarely runs Ice Beam. Ice Beam + Light Screen Starmie has a decent shot (still under 50% though) at beating even Thunderbolt Chansey but is incredibly rare; Psychic + Light Screen Starmie tends to get critted or frozen (or run out of PP) before it can rack up enough Special falls.
Chansey vs. Tauros: Chansey technically can win, but it's rare unless it successfully Counters Tauros (basically requiring surprise, since Tauros can easily play around Counter with its crit-happy Earthquakes and threat of Hyper Beam) or freezes it.
Chansey vs. Victreebel: Chansey doesn't 2HKO with Ice Beam, so Swords Dance Victreebel have about an even chance to nuke it before dying. Wrap Victreebel's got a bit under 50% chance to flawlessly win with Wrap, but if it gets paralysed it's pretty much over since Stun Spore's inaccurate as a means of regaining Speed supremacy and Victreebel doesn't Wrap or Hyper Beam nearly as hard as Dragonite does. Vic-Dre-bel (double powder/Razor Leaf/Wrap) or any other Victreebel without Hyper Beam usually loses.
Chansey vs. Zapdos: Chansey usually wins, as it isn't guaranteed to be 3HKOed by Drill Peck and can thus make some headway with Softboiled when both are paralysed; Ice Beam usually 3HKOs back. Not certain, though. If Mimic Zapdos gets Softboiled it basically always wins.
Cloyster
Cloyster vs. Alakazam: See above.
Cloyster vs. Articuno: See above.
Cloyster vs. Chansey: See above.
Cloyster vs. Cloyster: Unparalysed Cloyster beats a paralysed one without Rest due to Clamp. Unparalysed Cloyster vs. Resting paralysed Cloyster is still slightly in the unparalysed one's favour, as Rest doesn't remove the Speed drop and Cloyster only needs 4 Clamp hits to put an opposing Cloyster into Hyper Beam range (roughly a 30% chance, but it gets a lot of attempts before the slower Resting Cloyster can wear it down). Otherwise Rest decides it.
Cloyster vs. Dragonite: Dragonite has about a 30% chance to Wrap Cloyster into Hyper Beam range, but if it misses even one it's headshotted by STAB Blizzard.
Cloyster vs. Exeggutor: Cloyster wins if Egg doesn't specfall or if it crits/freezes. A specfall is decisive if Cloyster doesn't crit or freeze, however, as Psychic and Psychic vs. -1 always 2HKO while Blizzard and -1 Blizzard can't. Exeggutor usually beats paralysed Cloyster.
Cloyster vs. Gengar: Gengar outspeeds Cloyster, usually avoids a 3HKO from its STABs while being immune to Explosion, and 2HKOs with Thunderbolt. Cloyster usually defeats a paralysed Gengar, though.
Cloyster vs. Golem: Clamp OHKOs if it connects for 2 hits and Blizzard often KOs, while Rock Slide never 2HKOs.
Cloyster vs. Jolteon: Jolteon 2HKOs Cloyster with Thunderbolt. Even if it's paralysed, Jolteon has a pretty good chance to regain speed advantage via Thunder Wave and obliterate it.
Cloyster vs. Jynx: Jynx 3HKOs Cloyster with Psychic; Cloyster can win with a 4-hit or 5-hit Clamp and Hyper Beam but it's unlikely. Cloyster easily defeats a paralysed Jynx.
Cloyster vs. Lapras: Lapras 2HKOs Cloyster if it has Thunderbolt, but it's slower and lacks a reliable paralysis move; as such, Cloyster actually has around a 40% chance to kill it with Clamp + Hyper Beam first. Rest Lapras has about a 55% chance to stall Cloyster out of Clamp PP before succumbing. Lapras easily defeats a paralysed Cloyster, however.
Cloyster vs. Persian: Cloyster defeats Persian without Thunderbolt easily, as Slash is only a 4HKO. With Thunderbolt, it's still a tossup, as Thunderbolt only 3HKOs Cloyster while Cloyster often 2HKOs back with Blizzard (although there's freezes, misses, and crits to worry about, giving Persian a slight advantage - 60-40 or so - if I reckon it correctly). I'm assuming here that Thunderbolt is on around half of Persian; if the opinion is that it should be on "most" Persian, then I'll change this to yellow. Obviously, Cloyster tears apart paralysed Persian with ease.
Cloyster vs. Rhydon: Clamp OHKOs if it connects for 2 hits, though Blizzard usually won't. Rock Slide almost never 2HKOs, so the odds are still in Cloyster's favour even if it's paralysed.
Cloyster vs. Slowbro: Surf/Thunder Wave Slowbro wins about 2/3 of the time - first it has to Thunder Wave Cloyster before getting Clamped to death, and then it has to actually kill it before getting frozen. Psychic/Thunder Wave Slowbro has slightly better odds. Non-Thunder Wave Slowbro (around 20% by my count) have more difficulty, however (they still can win, if they get an Amnesia in and then spam Rest to stall out Cloyster's Clamp PP).
Cloyster vs. Snorlax: Cloyster almost always wins against Snorlax. Snorlax has only a 20% chance of getting a paraslam in before being KOed by Clamp and Blizzard, and even then the damage it's already taken means it's fighting an uphill battle to 4HKO Cloyster before being 3HKOed by Blizzard.
Cloyster vs. Starmie: Starmie hard-walls Cloyster and 2HKOs with Thunderbolt or 3HKOs with Psychic. Even a paralysed Thunder Wave Starmie can land para more often than not and resume hard-walling Cloyster.
Cloyster vs. Tauros: Cloyster usually wins, but the chance of Tauros haxing it are still significant as Blizzard can't 2HKO and Tauros gets the 4HKO more often than not. Thunderbolt Tauros beats Cloyster unless it gets out-haxed.
Cloyster vs. Victreebel: Cloyster and Victreebel are speedtied and each 2HKOs the other with their super-effective STAB moves (Razor Leaf's max damage leaves Cloyster with 1 HP). Cloyster has a small advantage in a direct slugfest because Blizzard can crit for an OHKO or freeze, while Razor Leaf is already a crit and has no secondary effect; Razor Leaf does have a slightly higher accuracy. Victreebel can alternately attempt to use Stun Spore to paralyse Cloyster and then Wrap it into Razor Leaf OHKO range; however, the low accuracy of the moves in question makes this a very slight improvement in odds for a significant risk of being killed for free by Cloyster.
Cloyster vs. Zapdos: Zapdos outspeeds and sometimes OHKOs with Thunderbolt, but is 2HKOed by Blizzard. Thunder is a guaranteed OHKO. Cloyster vs. paralysed Zapdos is something of a tossup; Cloyster can either directly go for Blizzard or try to Clamp Zapdos into Blizzard OHKO range. Both have a bit over 50% to beat Zapdos; Blizzard has the advantage that it will almost always put heavy damage on Zapdos even if Cloyster loses, but Clamping has a greater chance to beat Zapdos without Cloyster losing 90% of its health.
Dragonite
Dragonite vs. Alakazam: See above.
Dragonite vs. Articuno: See above.
Dragonite vs. Chansey: See above.
Dragonite vs. Cloyster: See above.
Dragonite vs. Dragonite: Optimal strategy for Dragonite in the ditto is to immediately Agility three times, unless it's suspected that the opposing Dragonite is running Thunder Wave over Agility - in that case Agility once, Agility again only if they Thunder Waved, and then start Wrapping (Thunder Wave Dragonite is bad, though) - or if the opposing Dragonite player was bad and revealed Toxic as you Agilitied but missed, in which case you should immediately attack with Wrap or Blizzard in hopes of killing them before they do land Toxic. Once they're both at +6... Blizzard Dragonite directly KOs any opposing Dragonite; Toxic Dragonite beats any other Dragonite besides Blizzard (Toxic Dragonite is also pretty bad; Dragonite appreciates Toxic or Fire Blast support, but doesn't have the time or the space in a moveset to do that itself). Body Slam Dragonite beats Hyper Beam Dragonite if none of the above scenarios apply.
Dragonite vs. Exeggutor: Exeggutor's bulky enough, but it just plain can't do much about Dragonite. Even if it's carrying Stun Spore, and gets a chance to use it (33% or so), it's not guaranteed the win if it took enough Wraps beforehand since it can't recover health. Other sets are pretty screwed. Probably wins if at full health vs. paralysed Dragonite though.
Dragonite vs. Gengar: Dragonite almost always loses to Gengar. Blizzard Dragonite has some chance of freezing it, or lucking it if Gengar's paralysed, but that's about it, as Night Shade 4HKOs while Blizzard usually doesn't and Surf struggles to even 5HKO.
Dragonite vs. Golem: Dragonite outspeeds Golem and OHKOs with Surf or 2HKOs with Blizzard. Golem only has about a 70% chance to 2HKO with Rock Slide, so it doesn't do very well even if Dragonite's paralysed.
Dragonite vs. Jolteon: Jolteon easily paralyses Dragonite, but it's frail enough that Dragonite can AgiliWrap it to death anyway a good chunk of the time. Dragonite beats paralysed Jolteon comfortably.
Dragonite vs. Jynx: Jynx outspeeds and OHKOs with Blizzard, but it's incredibly physically frail and will usually lose if paralysed.
Dragonite vs. Lapras: Lapras has an OHKO with Blizzard, but Dragonite outspeeds it and has about a 1/3 chance to kill it with Wrap + Hyper Beam before missing. Lapras annihilates paralysed Dragonite.
Dragonite vs. Persian: Persian doesn't learn any Ice moves and doesn't usually run Body Slam, so it doesn't have any way to stop Dragonite AgiliWrapping it to death. Usually wins against a pre-paralysed Dragonite, though, as it 3HKOs.
Dragonite vs. Rhydon: Dragonite always wins the straight 1v1 with Surf or Blizzard, but it needs Surf to win if it's paralysed, as Rhydon's guaranteed the 2HKO.
Dragonite vs. Slowbro: Slowbro needs Thunder Wave to have much of a chance, since its usual attacking options need a lot of turns to beat Dragonite. Even if it does have Thunder Wave, Dragonite's got about a 1/3 chance to beat it outright before taking Thunder Wave. Slowbro will basically always win if/once Dragonite's paralysed, though, since it's so physically bulky and can restore its HP with Rest.
Dragonite vs. Snorlax: Snorlax has about a 2/3 chance to get a hit in before being Wrapped to death, but it can't KO or reliably paralyse with that hit, so it loses. It's got the bulk to go toe-to-toe with a paralysed Nite, though.
Dragonite vs. Starmie: Starmie outspeeds and Thunder Waves Dragonite, and 70-80% of Starmie then follow up with Blizzard which sometimes OHKOs. Dragonite has better than even odds against a paralysed Starmie, though, and Surf/Thunderbolt Starmie has serious trouble actually killing it, allowing Dragonite to fish for luck against paralysis.
Dragonite vs. Tauros: Tauros Blizzards or Body Slams; either has about a 30% chance of taking out Dragonite (para for Body Slam, freeze or crit-OHKO for Blizzard), after which Dragonite AgiliWraps and has about a 40% chance of taking out Tauros before being finished off. Works out to a bit over 70:30 in Tauros' favour.
Dragonite vs. Victreebel: Razor Leaf is 4x resisted, so it's useless. Victreebel's got a bit over 40% chance of landing Stun Spore before FLAWLESS VICTORY. If it does, then it's got a 40% chance of actually killing Dragonite with Wrap + Hyper Beam before FATALITY Dragonite Agilities (rendering Victreebel totally helpless) and just Hyper Beams or Blizzards it to death. Swords Dance and VicDreBel have an even worse matchup.
Dragonite vs. Zapdos: Zapdos Thunder Waves Dragonite, and then usually wins slugging it out with non-Blizzard Dragonite. Blizzard Dragonite has a pretty good chance to win, though.
Exeggutor
Exeggutor vs. Alakazam: See above.
Exeggutor vs. Articuno: See above.
Exeggutor vs. Chansey: See above.
Exeggutor vs. Cloyster: See above.
Exeggutor vs. Dragonite: See above.
Exeggutor vs. Exeggutor: Rest Egg forces other Eggs to Explode, and Stun Spore Egg beats other Eggs (none of its other attacks really beat out Psychic).
Exeggutor vs. Gengar: Psychic 2HKOs, while Night Shade only 4HKOs. Gengar's only real hope is if it's running Confuse Ray + Night Shade, and even then it's really unlikely to win. Night Shade + Explosion doesn't KO.
Exeggutor vs. Golem: Golem only 4HKOs Exeggutor with Rock Slide, while Psychic has a 25.9% chance to 2HKO (which becomes almost 60% after crits and specfalls). Mega Drain does absurd amounts of damage but won't OHKO. Rock Slide + Explosion KOs but it's likely to be killed by Psychic first.
Exeggutor vs. Jolteon: Jolteon needs 9 or 10 hits of Pin Missile to kill Egg (it averages 3 hits per use and is 85% accurate), but is 3HKOed by Psychic. It's about an even chance, all things considered.
Exeggutor vs. Jynx: Exeggutor 3HKOs with Double-Edge or Egg Bomb, but its other attacks are ineffective; Jynx outspeeds and 2HKOs with Blizzard. Explosion guarantees the tie if it connects, but Jynx has a 24% chance of OHKOing Egg with a crit or freeze first.
Exeggutor vs. Lapras: Lapras outspeeds and 2HKOs Egg with Blizzard while Egg only 4HKOs with Psychic. Fresh Exeggutor vs. paralysed Lapras is pretty even, since if Egg specfalls with the first Psychic it's a 3HKO both ways.
Exeggutor vs. Persian: Persian 3HKOs with Slash, but Exeggutor has a 56% chance to kill it first with Psychic via high rolls, a crit, or a specfall on the first turn. Egg can also Explode after one Psychic to guarantee the tie.
Exeggutor vs. Rhydon:Rhydon 4HKOs with Rock Slide, though it's got a decent shot at a 3HKO if it carries Hyper Beam (Hyper Beam has no use outside of this potential 3HKO, however, and is thus rare). Rhydon has a decent shot against paralysed Exeggutor thanks to commonly avoiding the Psychic 2HKO (4.3% cold 2HKOs, 46% after specfalls and crits) and the possibility of said 3HKO; however, if Exeggutor has Mega Drain Rhydon can forget it (a single Mega Drain connecting will take Rhydon down to a sliver of health and heal Egg by almost 50%).
Exeggutor vs. Slowbro: Exeggutor's almost never going to win this one. Any Egg without Mega Drain is hardwalled; Mega Drain Egg does have some chance, particularly against paralysed Slowbro. Once Slowbro gets to +4, however, Mega Drain doesn't even 3HKO with a crit and can be stalled out with Rest. Stun Spore + Leech Seed + Rest Exeggutor has some chance of stalemating a Surf Slowbro, but it's not likely and doesn't work against Psychic Slowbro; this Exeggutor set is also extremely rare. Mega Drain Egg can usually take down Slowbro with Explosion, but it's not guaranteed; other Exeggutor won't be able to if Slowbro plays cautiously.
Exeggutor vs. Snorlax: Exeggutor outspeeds and has a 65% chance of 3HKOing Snorlax with Psychic after crits and specfalls; however, Snorlax assures a 3HKO with Body Slam and Hyper Beam and has a 51% chance of paralysing Exeggutor with the two Body Slams. Blizzard Amnesialax also usually wins, as +2 Blizzard + +2 Blizzard and even +2 Blizzard + +1 Blizzard (if Exeggutor gets a special-fall) will always KO. Regardless of Snorlax's set, Exeggutor can usually Psychic and then Explode for a tie (the only exception would be ReflectAmnesiaLax).
More after I've eaten
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Post by kel9901 on Sept 1, 2014 16:37:40 GMT -8
explosion isn't really factored in enough imo, as from my experience in real games, explosion from most pokes easily draw vs non-reflect chansey and non-reflect zam (aka most zam, as zam is usually lead)
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Post by magic9mushroom on Sept 1, 2014 19:49:57 GMT -8
I did factor in Explosion. Forced Explosion that actually guarantees the tie drops a matchup from cyan/red to green/orange. Forced Explosion with a significant chance of failure (faster Reflect, significant chance of faster OHKO, Explosion doesn't OHKO) stays at cyan/red.
Explosion inherently can't win a matchup. All it can do is turn a losing matchup into a tie. Or give you an instant 1-Pokemon loss if it's caught by a Normal-resist. Thus, it can be useful strategically, but in the context of matchups it's not particularly relevant.
(Also, Zam isn't always a lead, Zam sometimes runs Reflect even if it is a lead, and Kinesis Zam makes Explosion unwise. Last month's PO stats were 39% SToss/31% Reflect/25% Kinesis/1% Counter/4% assorted noob garbage.)
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Isa
Member
FOREVER SECOND
Posts: 1,479
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Post by Isa on Sept 2, 2014 0:52:17 GMT -8
Nice list. Good research into the Ice move matchups. Some disagreements though: Alakazam vs. Snorlax is not neutral. Snorlax has the advantage. Paralyzed Reflect Alakazam survives two Earthquakes from Golem almost all the time. Golem Earthquake vs. Alakazam: 182-214 (58.1 - 68.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO Golem Earthquake vs. Alakazam through Reflect: 90-106 (28.7 - 33.8%) -- 0.5% chance to 3HKO Hyper Beam is common enough on Articuno (idk what is standard on Articuno really) for it to be counted re: Jynx. Articuno vs. Starmie is somewhat tricky if Articuno runs Agility, Blizzard and Hyper Beam (I'd argue this is decently common at least). If Starmie is beneath 80% and gets hit by a Critical hit Blizzard, Hyper Beam finishes Starmie. Cloyster has ~30% chance of getting four straight Clamp series versus Chansey, ensuring the HBeam KO. That's not bad. Leech Seed + Rest Exeggutor beats Chansey until it gets a crit, but spec drops from Psychic help. Chansey ties with Jolteon at best in my experience, it is absolutely not advantaged for Chansey at least. Persian's fourth move should depend on what is ran with it and as such I don't think it's easy to say that Screen should or should not be standard. Keep it up.
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Post by kel9901 on Sept 2, 2014 1:20:17 GMT -8
I did factor in Explosion. Forced Explosion that actually guarantees the tie drops a matchup from cyan/ red to green/ orange. Forced Explosion with a significant chance of failure (faster Reflect, significant chance of faster OHKO, Explosion doesn't OHKO) stays at cyan/ red. Explosion inherently can't win a matchup. All it can do is turn a losing matchup into a tie. Or give you an instant 1-Pokemon loss if it's caught by a Normal-resist. Thus, it can be useful strategically, but in the context of matchups it's not particularly relevant. (Also, Zam isn't always a lead, Zam sometimes runs Reflect even if it is a lead, and Kinesis Zam makes Explosion unwise. Last month's PO stats were 39% SToss/31% Reflect/25% Kinesis/1% Counter/4% assorted noob garbage.) Imo 'being caught by a normal resist' or immune isn't important as this is strict 1v1. Exeggutor can, for instance. in a 1v1, draw whenever it likes (unless it's paralysed and gets fp'd all the time, which is rare) vs chansey. This is also the case in Gengar vs chansey. Even though gengar's explosion rarely (if ever) ohko's, it still makes me afraid to 1v1 it with chansey in real games. Imo, explosion draws that are secure (e.g. exeggutor vs chansey, cloyster vs chansey especially cause it has clamp to weaken it the little bit) should be yellow, and the 'forced explosion with a significant chance of failure' that you mentioned should be green/orange
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Post by magic9mushroom on Sept 2, 2014 4:46:51 GMT -8
Nice list. Good research into the Ice move matchups. Some disagreements though: Alakazam vs. Snorlax is not neutral. Snorlax has the advantage. ALAKAZAM used REFLECT! SNORLAX is sad! It may not accomplish anything! Yellow is a hedge between Snorlax usually beating non-Reflect Zam and Reflect Zam usually beating Snorlax. "Almost all the time" is 95.1% FYI. But that isn't the main issue here. See, the matchup goes something like this: GOLEM used EARTHQUAKE! *ALAKAZAM used REFLECT! ALAKAZAM gained armour! (Golem at full, Zam at just >1/3) GOLEM used EARTHQUAKE! *ALAKAZAM used RECOVER! ALAKAZAM regained health! (Golem at full, Zam at >1/2) GOLEM used EARTHQUAKE! *ALAKAZAM used RECOVER! ALAKAZAM regained health! (Golem at full, Zam at >2/3) GOLEM used EARTHQUAKE! ALAKAZAM used PSYCHIC! (Golem in KO range, Zam at >1/3) GOLEM used EARTHQUAKE! ALAKAZAM used PSYCHIC! GOLEM fainted! If Alakazam is FPed on any of the starred turns, or Golem crits any of those five Earthquakes, Golem instantly wins. That's already a 75% chance of Golem victory including the chance of initial 2HKO, and that's without considering the later possibilities of double FPs or a single FP making it last longer and enabling a crit. Not guaranteed, certainly, but still significantly biased toward Golem. Combined with non-Reflect Zam dying >90% of the time it's enough. Oh, I'm counting it, I'm just not counting it as "standard" ie "nearly all Arty". Hyper Beam Arty vs. Jynx itself is yellow. Arty Blizz/Blizz/HBeam isn't quite assured as a 3HKO (though I guess it could go HBeam/recharge/HBeam), and Jynx Psychic/Blizz/Blizz/Blizz is assured as a 4HKO. Jynx 3HKOs if it specfalls, crits the first turn and doesn't get absurdly unlucky with rolls, or crits the second or third turn, while Arty only 2HKOs if it crits the first turn (or, I guess, if it gets critted or specfalled t1 and crits Hyper Beam t2) - Jynx's crit rate is slightly higher, too. Sure, but Starmie has a 47% chance to cold-3HKO with Tbolt and a 22.5% crit rate. You don't have time to Agility and then get those three hits unless it wastes time T-waving you before you Agility (which it optimally doesn't, as the FP chance isn't worth the turn spent even if Arty doesn't have Agility) or it gets somewhat unlucky, and even then you only get one shot. I noted it as an issue for non-Tbolt Starmie, but a Tbolt Starmie that's already in vs. Articuno isn't vulnerable to those antics, only to a clutch freeze. It needs to hit Hyper Beam as well. But yeah, I noted that it's not impossible. I guess with the chance for a clutch freeze after being paralysed and the higher chances vs. nonstandard Chansey it probably does break the 33-35% line I'm trying to stick to for yellow. A crit or a freeze. Egg eats a lot of IBs doing that and the freeze chances stack up. Also like 1% usage. DK's only a 4HKO; they both Twave and then Chansey Softboils whenever not at full health. Jolt needs non-fp+crit/fp/non-fp or non-fp/fp/non-fp/fp/non-fp or non-fp+crit/non-fp+crit. I think the chance of doing that before getting IBeamed or STossed to death is pretty low? Only real Chansey set without Twave is Counter+Tbolt, and Countered DK 2HKOs Jolt. A pre-paralysed Chansey doesn't like switching into Jolt, but I do think Chansey takes the fresh 1v1. Calcs may be needed here. Hrrm. Imo 'being caught by a normal resist' or immune isn't important as this is strict 1v1. Exeggutor can, for instance. in a 1v1, draw whenever it likes (unless it's paralysed and gets fp'd all the time, which is rare) vs chansey. This is also the case in Gengar vs chansey. Even though gengar's explosion rarely (if ever) ohko's, it still makes me afraid to 1v1 it with chansey in real games. Imo, explosion draws that are secure (e.g. exeggutor vs chansey, cloyster vs chansey especially cause it has clamp to weaken it the little bit) should be yellow, and the 'forced explosion with a significant chance of failure' that you mentioned should be green/orange Gengar exploding on Chansey and not KOing, in the strict 1v1, is clearly a win for Chansey. But yeah I think "X has to Explode" is generically bad for X. Depends on how you weight possible wins vs. likely draws as well as the context.
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Post by kel9901 on Sept 2, 2014 15:53:04 GMT -8
also, what about sleep? It's pretty important in many 1v1s (e.g. exeggutor, gengar etc)
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Post by magic9mushroom on Sept 2, 2014 19:15:25 GMT -8
also, what about sleep? It's pretty important in many 1v1s (e.g. exeggutor, gengar etc) I'm trying to build on/fix the original version of this, which assumed both sides have something asleep.
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