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Post by Consumptus on Apr 5, 2011 11:32:47 GMT -8
Matchup Spreadsheet Matchups is now finished. Thanks to WW for making the link prettier.  RBY OU Matchups is written by me. Matchups assume fresh pokemon. I did not mention Sleep although I did mention Explosion/SelfDestruct.
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Post by Crystal_ on Apr 5, 2011 11:38:32 GMT -8
how can i see that?
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Isa
Member
FOREVER SECOND
Posts: 1,479
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Post by Isa on Apr 5, 2011 12:11:48 GMT -8
This is awesome. Be sure to post whenever you update this.
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Post by WaterWizard on Apr 5, 2011 14:43:58 GMT -8
lots of exceptions for those of us who use nonstandard movesets. for instance, counter zam beats stoss zam, etc.
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Post by Consumptus on Apr 5, 2011 18:03:20 GMT -8
Updated it again.
This is a guide. Like WaterWizard mentioned, nonstandard movesets can tip the balance. I tried to mention everything but I will have missed some things.
I tried to leave out sleep, but I did mention Explosion on pokemon who have it.
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Post by Vaerris on Apr 5, 2011 19:31:51 GMT -8
For future reference, you can put the url like this to make it a hyperlink.
[url=https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AtZ9qtRH7eMddDlxSWZBaUY2VWNZOXN5bkc1MUFHaFE&hl=en&authkey=CK-_t-4B]RBY Matchups[/url]
This will be extremely useful once finished for me. And damn, Zam.
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Post by t3h Icy on Apr 5, 2011 20:36:35 GMT -8
Zam is really one-dimensional though and runs on Psychic, so he can't destroy everything. He's tricky to use well.
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Post by garrinred on Apr 5, 2011 20:55:48 GMT -8
Zam is really one-dimensional though and runs on Psychic, so he can't destroy everything. He's tricky to use well. Completely disagree. Zam is a total beast who can perform any and every role on my team. |
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Post by t3h Icy on Apr 6, 2011 4:44:04 GMT -8
Even Sleeper?
Alakazam can definitely fight every Pokemon alone, with Persian being the only total counter (if Alakazam is already Paralyzed), but if you fight too many stallers, you'll eventually run out of Psychic PP. The only alternative is if you drop a move for Psybeam or Seismic Toss.
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Post by garrinred on Apr 6, 2011 6:47:09 GMT -8
Actually, Zam quite often fulfills the role of Sleeper on my team. I find he's very good at sleeping, especially after Gar is dead, and he has a tendency to wake up at all the right moments.  On a more serious note, Zam can use Mimic(on Eggy, Jynx, or Gar) to consistently gain awesome moves. When one of those is a sleep move, then Zam becomes an excellent Sleeper! :-D I run Seismic Toss Zam most of the time(physical sweeper ftw!), though there's something to be said for Reflect, Counter, and Mimic. They're quite fun to play with. I've never seen someone use Kinesis, but I would respect them if I did. Zam is such a beast, on my team he out-stalls stallers on a regular basis. Then later in the battle he sweeps.  |
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Nerd
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Post by Nerd on Apr 6, 2011 8:11:23 GMT -8
Mimic is probably the best option for a lead zam: mimic on the switch for a 1/3 chance to get a sleep move from jynx/eggy.
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Post by Consumptus on Apr 6, 2011 8:23:49 GMT -8
Alakazam is a beast. He beats a lot of pokemon 1on1. However, a battle is a team game and Icy is right in that you can stall Alakazam out of Psychic PP by switching between Starmie/Zam/Chansey to recover off the damage.
That said, when in doubt with Zam, just Psychic. Criticals or Special falls can change the game.
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Post by WaterWizard on Apr 6, 2011 9:42:13 GMT -8
remember that Rest Eggy always beats Zam without Stoss. 16 Psychics just doesn't cut it.
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Post by t3h Icy on Apr 6, 2011 14:57:53 GMT -8
With enough Special falls, it's possible, but I'd definitely bet on Eggy winning.
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Post by Consumptus on Apr 6, 2011 18:47:28 GMT -8
At the same time though, Eggy won't be killing Zam with Mega Drain/Psychics. Double Edge maybe, with a critical, but the recoil hurts Eggy too.
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Post by garrinred on Apr 6, 2011 21:01:29 GMT -8
Stoss Zam (which is my preferred set) can beat Eggy no problem if my Gar is slept or my Zam is paralyzed and I can predict the inevitable Explosion. If Eggy Rests(I have never ever seen this on an Eggy), I'm switching to something other than Zam, probably Reflect Chansey or maybe Tauros or something. Lapras/Cloyster if I have one. Well, maybe I'll keep using Stoss and then switch on a Rest turn for the extra move. Same thing though.
Stoss Zam also escapes the PP problem and can counter-stall Chansey and other stallers.
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Post by t3h Icy on Apr 6, 2011 21:12:49 GMT -8
Without Reflect, Alakazam has more trouble with Physicals, particularly Snorlax.
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Post by garrinred on Apr 6, 2011 21:22:38 GMT -8
Well I didn't say that Zam could fulfill all roles at the same time.  |
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Post by Crystal_ on Apr 7, 2011 3:54:00 GMT -8
Resting makes you vulnerable to prediction. There are some threatening stuff that can 3HKO Egg, though with para support this list becomes smaller. Same for resting Slowbro, Snorlax, Articuno, Lapras and rest anything tbh.
Snorlax is powerful but doesn't kill you in 20 seconds. Hence, Stoss Alakazam being vulnerable to Snorlax isn't the end of the world. Alakazam's Psychic does more to Lax than his BSlam does to Lapras, especially when you add the possibility of sending Rhydon/Golem or Egg for mind gaming, so, over time, letting Snorlax coming on your Psychic is productive.
Reflect Zam depends insanely on luck, and if he could do something without the bad luck (or with luck?), it won't do it if your opponent has anything that recovers. Stoss gives less time to Egg/Bro/Jynx and is rather cool for para Zams/Stars.
And about Mimic, I can't really see Gengar leads being that common imo. Otherwise you are not forcing a switch.
Alakazam is not a sweeper or a wall, but a supporter. Para, Spc fall and CH his Chansey to set up your Snorlax/Rhydon/whatever and Stoss zams/stars sending your Snorlax/Rhydon with prediction if you need to or it's the better option for a sweep. And, if he is switching between two things to stall you out of Psychic, abuse it to para more things and sending your sweeper into their Chansey switch-in or into whatever is better. And, if it's Egg SToss it. Unless you run Reflect, sure.
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Post by WaterWizard on Apr 7, 2011 10:26:55 GMT -8
remember this is about 1v1 fresh matchups.
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Post by garrinred on Apr 7, 2011 11:32:54 GMT -8
And about Mimic, I can't really see Gengar leads being that common imo. Otherwise you are not forcing a switch. Alakazam is not a sweeper or a wall, but a supporter. With a Gar lead, you Psychic. People have this strange tendency to keep Gar in against Zam, and I love to watch it die. Also, I maintain that Zam is all roles. :-P |
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Post by Consumptus on Apr 14, 2011 19:42:29 GMT -8
RBY OU Matchups is now completed!
If I miss anything please post it =)
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Post by LucasBM on Apr 15, 2011 5:33:25 GMT -8
This is absolutelly amazing!
Great work, Consumptus!
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Post by t3h Icy on Apr 17, 2011 20:48:27 GMT -8
Looks solid! =)
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Isa
Member
FOREVER SECOND
Posts: 1,479
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Post by Isa on Apr 18, 2011 2:28:52 GMT -8
Very helpful, thank you  A bit more information would do it just fine though..."Persian loses, Persian loses, Persian wins, Persian loses, Persian wins" is good, but could certainly be made much better. |
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Post by hipmonlee on May 7, 2011 5:16:24 GMT -8
I was going to make the point that Snorlax can paralyse Exeggutor with bodyslam more than 50% of the time, so that to say Exeggutor wins one on one with lax is kinda misleading, as lax will win almost half of the time anyway, but having actually done the maths, Eggy doesnt have very good odds of 3hkoing Lax anyway. I used smogon calc because I was being lazy, but it looks like you need max damage three times. Eggy is going to lose 1 on 1 with lax around about 75% of the time (really rough estimation).
Also I am pretty sure on average Jolteon does more to Alakazam with tbolt than with pin missile. Because it is more likely to hit twice or three times than four or five times the damage is pretty pathetic. Though even without that mechanic, it still averages less than tbolt (though it has the potential to do more).
I dont see three high roll megadrains helping Eggy beat Starmie. If Starmie gets highrolled twice, surely it will recover..
I was hoping there would be more maths here. Like what is the chance of Jynx beating Chansey one on one. Chansey will 4 or 5 hit KO. Jynx ibs, Chansey twaves, then hits 4 or 5 turns, 5 is more likely. So that is 4 more turns to ib. Which means 4 ibs total, since it will normally FP once. Chansey can CH but Chansey will probably want to recover at least once, though this isnt really relevant. 4 ibs is roughly a 33% chance at freezing. If chansey wants to recover, that goes up a bit.. It's actually pretty reasonable. Less with Blizzard, though Chansey again will have more need to recover. If chansey only has ice beam you get twice as many chances to hit it with icebeam..
I would love to see someone calculate the odds of Alakazam vs Chansey one on one, with Chansey going for the freeze and Alakazam using psychic. Hmm..
I am kinda curious about Lax vs Tauros too. Tauros's odds must be at least reasonable. Though I do kinda doubt they are up over 50%.
However Tauros vs Starmie I think could well be better than 50%.
Also on your Lax vs Slowbro calc, chances are Lax wont 3hko Slowbro. If I was the slowbro, I would par the Lax then amnesia and rest until it FPs.
On average lax 3hkos Lapras, given 2 chances of Paring and the chance of a miss, I think Lax is probably more likely to win between these two. Though freeze could just pull it back in Lapras's favour. Not to mention Confuse Ray which really does make the whole thing really fucking confusing.
I like this guide, I think it would be cool to have it really really accurate. Cover a lot more situations.. It would be very very difficult to do, though I think potentially possible.
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Post by t3h Icy on May 7, 2011 9:25:43 GMT -8
I was going to make the point that Snorlax can paralyse Exeggutor with bodyslam more than 50% of the time, so that to say Exeggutor wins one on one with lax is kinda misleading, as lax will win almost half of the time anyway, but having actually done the maths, Eggy doesnt have very good odds of 3hkoing Lax anyway. Don't forget about Special drops and CHs though. Without either, the chance of a 3HKO is 147/59319 (less than 0.25%), but the chance of getting at least one CH or Special drop across two turns is about 61%. For what it's worth, Exeggutor could also explode and call that a tie or loss, but Snorlax could too. Also I am pretty sure on average Jolteon does more to Alakazam with tbolt than with pin missile. Because it is more likely to hit twice or three times than four or five times the damage is pretty pathetic. Though even without that mechanic, it still averages less than tbolt (though it has the potential to do more). Jolteon's Thunderbolt does 106-90. Pin Missile has an 85% chance to hit and then 3/8, 3/8, 1/8, 1/8 chances for 2, 3, 4 and 5 hits respectively. 15%: 0 (Miss) 31.875%: 61-51 31.875%: 89-76 10.625%: 118-100 10.625%: 146-124 So on average, the min end is 64 with the max end at about 75. So assuming averages, Jolteon's Pin Missile would be a 5HKO, while Thunderbolt is a 4HKO. But with Alakazam's Recover and Jolteon's CH rate, the fairly large standard deviation is worth it if you intend on beating Alakazam 1v1. With Reflect, Thunderbolt would probably be better though, and if you follow-up after Jolteon faints, Thunderbolt would be better to ensure you get the revenge KO. I dont see three high roll megadrains helping Eggy beat Starmie. If Starmie gets highrolled twice, surely it will recover.. Starmie Paralyzed and Exeggutor not Paralyzed is key for this to work. You could potentially Mega Drain stall Starmie if Blizzard never freezes, but you'll be on the losing end. Also, the chance to 3HKO with Mega Drain is 58239/59319 (98%), so if you get a CH on the second Mega Drain, it should finish off Starmie (assuming Starmie isn't using Recover every turn). I was hoping there would be more maths here. Like what is the chance of Jynx beating Chansey one on one. Chansey will 4 or 5 hit KO. Jynx ibs, Chansey twaves, then hits 4 or 5 turns, 5 is more likely. So that is 4 more turns to ib. Which means 4 ibs total, since it will normally FP once. Jynx usually uses Blizzard since the damage is desired when following up on Lovely Kiss, but Ice Beam is nice for freezing. Anyway, when you get to things involving 4-5HKOs, including FPs, Softboiled, Freezes, etc, it's a ton of math to consider everything that can happen. Also just a tip, a 1/4 chance doesn't necessarily mean 1 across 4 times if you're considering a series of trials. Y = FP N = No-FP YYYY (0.39%) YYYN (1.17%) YYNY (1.17%) YYNN (3.52%) YNYY (1.17%) YNYN (3.52%) YNNY (3.52%) YNNN (10.5%) NYYY (1.17%) NYYN (3.52%) NYNY (3.52%) NYNN (10.5%) NNYY (3.52%) NNYN (10.5%) NNNY (10.5%) NNNN (31.6%) So across 4 turns, you have a 0.39% chance to FP all 4 times, 4.68% to FP 3 times, 21.12% to FP 2 times, 42% to FP 1 time, and 31.6% to not FP at all. So yes, the chance to FP once across 4 turns is the most likely outcome, but the differences aren't always far spread out. FPing once is only about 10% more likely than not at all (across 4 turns). I would love to see someone calculate the odds of Alakazam vs Chansey one on one, with Chansey going for the freeze and Alakazam using psychic. Hmm.. Same thing with Jynx vs Chansey, but I can tell you that in general, Paralysis is better. Freezing is good for the 1v1 though. The problem is after Alakazam gets enough Special falls, CHs and Chansey FPs, you'll eventually get to a point where you need to Softboiled each turn or switch out. With Alakazam not Paralyzed, he gets an opportunity each turn too. For specifically Freezing with Chansey, Light Screen is good to have and it also helps in Chansey Freeze Wars. You lose one turn, but you heal only half the time (a little less when the opposing Chansey CHs). The turn loss makes up for it more often than not. I've actually used Starmie specifically for Freezing with Light Screen, Ice Beam, Psychic, Recover (Psychic for Gengar since I lead with this). It's possibly the best set possible for Starmie vs Chansey too as Psychic can help for a Special fall so come Ice Beam, you heal less often and Chansey heals more (slightly). There are ways around this though. I am kinda curious about Lax vs Tauros too. Tauros's odds must be at least reasonable. Though I do kinda doubt they are up over 50%. I'm pretty sure it's in Snorlax's favor by a fair margin. Snorlax can also choose to Selfdestruct for a tie. However Tauros vs Starmie I think could well be better than 50%. "Standard" Starmie, definitely, but Starmie with Psychic or Hydro Pump has the edge. Also on your Lax vs Slowbro calc, chances are Lax wont 3hko Slowbro. If I was the slowbro, I would par the Lax then amnesia and rest until it FPs. If Slowbro gets Paralyzed, Snorlax has a fair chance of forcing Slowbro to Rest earlier, and Snorlax should be able to finish Slowbro off during Rest, even if it takes a few tries since Slowbro may have to immediately Rest again if Snorlax doesn't FP enough. Snorlax could also Amnesia or Selfdestruct if for Slowbro specifically. On average lax 3hkos Lapras, given 2 chances of Paring and the chance of a miss, I think Lax is probably more likely to win between these two. Though freeze could just pull it back in Lapras's favour. Not to mention Confuse Ray which really does make the whole thing really fucking confusing. Bunch of factors. The chance of Snorlax 3HKOing with Body Slam, Body Slam, Hyper Beam is 34215/59319 (57.7%). It's in Snorlax's favor, but since the last move is Hyper Beam, if you don't get it, Lapras should finish Snorlax off, but Lapras could be Paralyzed by then (51%). I'd stick with Lapras winning, but it's pretty close to even. I like this guide, I think it would be cool to have it really really accurate. Cover a lot more situations.. It would be very very difficult to do, though I think potentially possible. I've written a few threads like this if you're interested like this. Also, welcome. =) |
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Post by WaterWizard on May 7, 2011 10:34:47 GMT -8
hey hipmonlee, welcome to the forum. glad to have you here!
~
Snorlax usually beats Tauros 1v1, especially with Mega Kick or Counter or Reflect.
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Post by Consumptus on May 7, 2011 15:05:49 GMT -8
Yeah, I'll definitely admit that this isn't very comprehensive. I never took statistics so I'm definitely not qualified to go into the math for that.
Definitely take this as a guide. I'll try and update it with the moves I used to determine the matchups.
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Post by hipmonlee on May 7, 2011 16:48:34 GMT -8
Ok, I did it.
If jynx blizzards until it dies, and chansey thunderwaves it first then thunderbolts and softboileds whenever it gets below 50% health, then jynx will freeze chansey 33.73% of the time.
Hmm.. although I didnt count pp..
However! If jynx uses icebeam instead of blizzard, it will win 35.6% of the time!
This doesnt include tha chance of jynx running out of pp but that seems a minor consideration.
[edit] - ah nuts, I used gsc ch rates.. It seems it makes very little difference 33.8 with blizzard, still 35.6 with ib
[edit] Ok, starmie vs tauros after about 200 attempts to not fuck this up! So much for easy to convert this haha.
Chance of tauros winning (yeah I shoulda done it the other way, oh well)
Tauros BSlamming vs Surf and no twaves: 43.2
Tauros BSlamming vs HP and no TW: 43.4
Tauros vs Surf + TW: 43.6
Tauros vs HP + TW: 42.9
Ok this is fixed now. This is Starmie not recovering and in the case of the no twave ones, it does paralyse tauros when it gets paralysed (this is a little more complicated, but I needed a blanket response, and the difference between this and never thunderwaving was negligible), and Tauros only hyperbeaming, when:
hyperbeam is a ko
bodyslam isnt
starmie is paralysed and Tauros is not.
Now with starmie tbolting Tauros when Tauros is in KO range. Though tbh I could refine this further. Anyway, in terms of killing Tauros, hydropump is so neglegibly advantageous compared with surf, I really wouldnt advise using it. Especially considering the potential costs.
Next up, you probably dont care about this, but I am going to modify it to calc wrappers vs OUs
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On a more serious note, Zam can use Mimic(on Eggy, Jynx, or Gar) to consistently gain awesome moves. When one of those is a sleep move, then Zam becomes an excellent Sleeper! :-D
A bit more information would do it just fine though..."Persian loses, Persian loses, Persian wins, Persian loses, Persian wins" is good, but could certainly be made much better.